随着我国民航业的迅猛发展，空中交通流量不断攀升，机场塔台管制系统的运行安全面临严峻考验，因此，正确识别和评估风险成为有效提高塔台管制系统运行安全水平的重要前提。为精准且有效地完成对塔台管制系统运行的安全评估，构建了基于模糊决策实验室分析法(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，DEMATEL)-网络层次分析法(Analytic Network Process，ANP)-熵权法-云模型的塔台管制系统运行安全评估模型。首先，通过流程图法并结合人-机-环-管的思想建立塔台管制系统运行安全评估指标体系，并采用模糊DEMATEL法确定评估指标间的相互影响关系，绘制评估指标之间的网络结构图;然后，通过ANP法确定各评估指标的主观权重，采用熵权法确定各评估指标的客观权重，并通过博弈论方法计算评估指标的综合权重;最后，将权重结果与评语层云模型结合使用对各级安全评估指标进行安全评估，通过MATLAB软件完成算例的仿真分析。结果表明:该塔台管制系统运行安全等级在一般和良好之间，仍需采取有效措施对某些风险因素进行控制;同时验证了该模型在塔台管制系统运行安全评估中具有可行性和准确性，对塔台管制系统安全评估具有指导意义。
Operational safety assessment of tower control system based on combined weighted cloud model
In order to evaluate the safety level of tower control system in operation accurately and effectively,a model for evaluating safety level based on fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)-Analytic Network Process(ANP)-cloud model is constructed.This paper is mainly divided into four parts.In the first part,the paper firstly analyzes the operation process of the tower control system by using the flow chart method from the aspects of"man,machine,environment,and management",and comprehensively identifies the potential risk factors in the operation process,and establishes the operation safety evaluation index system of the tower control system.In the second part,the paper uses fuzzy DEMATEL to determine the mutual influence relationship among various indexes,and issues questionnaires to 10 safety experts,to obtain the direct influence matrix A.After calculation and processing,the comprehensive influence matrix T is obtained,and the network structure diagram between the evaluation indexes is drawn.In the third part,the subjective weight of each evaluation index is determined by the analytic network process method(ANP method),the objective weight of each evaluation index is determined by the entropy weight method,and the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index is calculated by the game theory method.In the last part,the weight results are combined with the comment layer cloud model to evaluate the safety level of evaluation indicators,and the simulation analysis of the example is completed through MATLAB.The results show that the operating safety level of the tower control system in the four aspects of man,equipment,environment,and management is between general and good,and the safety level of this tower's control system in operation is between general and good,so effective measures are still needed to control some risky factors;meanwhile,the feasibility and accuracy of the model in the safety evaluation of the tower control system in operation are verified.It has a guiding significance for the safety assessment of the tower control system.
safety engineeringtriangular fuzzy numberDecision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)Analytic Network Process(ANP)entropy weight methodcloud modeltower control
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
