首页|证据实时更新的海上平台采油树系统动态风险评估方法研究

证据实时更新的海上平台采油树系统动态风险评估方法研究

Research on dynamic risk assessment method for Christmas tree systems on offshore platforms with real-time updated evidence

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海上平台采油树系统是油气生产的重要设备之一.为研究证据实时更新的采油树系统动态风险评估问题,提出了基于动态贝叶斯网络、物元理论和证据理论的海上平台采油树系统动态风险评估方法.首先,根据采油树结构组成和故障率等,建立动态贝叶斯网络结构模型和参数模型;其次,依据物元理论对各故障模式的失效后果进行量化分析;最后,将新加入的证据转化为风险区间,计算采油树系统的风险区间,并对风险进行预测.以某采油树为例,对构建的模型进行了实证研究.结果表明:失效后果最严重的关键部件是采油树本体;对于采油树系统的各类阀门,最主要的故障模式是开关故障和阀门外漏;随着新证据的增加,风险区间的不确定性减小;采油树系统的套管翼阀、节流阀和地面安全阀风险偏高,需要采取相应的预防措施,以保证采油树系统的安全可靠运行.
The offshore platform Christmas tree system is one of the important pieces of equipment for oil and gas production.To ensure safe and efficient production of oil and gas wells and address the issue of real-time evidence updating in the dynamic risk assessment of the Christmas tree system,a dynamic risk assessment method for offshore platform Christmas tree production based on dynamic Bayesian networks,physical element theory,and evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,the failure mode and state transition model were determined based on the structure and failure rate of the Christmas tree system,and a dynamic Bayesian network structure and parameter model were established.Then,the consequences of various failure modes were quantitatively analyzed using physical element theory and expert experience,and the risk interval of each key component of the Christmas tree system was obtained by considering the probability of risk and the quantified consequence values.Finally,evidence theory was used to transform newly added evidence into a risk interval and combine it with the theoretical value to calculate the risk interval of the Christmas tree system.Risks were predicted based on the established dynamic Bayesian network.An empirical study was conducted on a certain Christmas tree,and the results show that the Christmas tree body is the key component with the most severe consequences,and the main failure modes of various valves in the Christmas tree system are switch failure and valve leakage.With the increase of new evidence,the uncertainty of risk interval decreases.The risks of the tubing wing valve,throttle valve,and surface safety valve in the Christmas tree system are relatively high,and corresponding preventive measures need to be taken to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the Christmas tree system.

safety engineeringrisk assessmentChristmas tree systems on offshore platformsDynamic Bayesian Network(DBN)matter-element theoryevidence fusion

吴奇兵、陈明新、陈泽光、李文涛、刘可扬、葛伟凤、蔡宝平

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中海油安全技术服务有限公司,天津 300450

中国石油大学机电工程学院,山东青岛 266580

中海油能源发展股份有限公司安全环保分公司,天津 300450

安全工程 风险评估 海上平台采油树 动态贝叶斯网络 物元理论 证据融合

海油发展科技重大专项国家重点研发计划项目

HFKJ-2D2X-AQ-2021-032019YFE0105100

2024

10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2023.0762

安全与环境学报
北京理工大学 中国环境科学学会 中国职业安全健康协会

安全与环境学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.943
ISSN：1009-6094
年,卷(期)：2024.24(4)
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