首页|装配式建筑吊装施工安全关键风险分析的改进DEMATEL方法

装配式建筑吊装施工安全关键风险分析的改进DEMATEL方法

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为了解决装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评估体系缺失、演化路径不清的共性问题，提高施工安全科学管理水平，提出了一种基于改进决策试验与实验室评估法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，DEMATEL)的关键风险识别与演化路径分析方法。基于扎根理论构建装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评价指标体系，利用基于组合数有序加权算子(Combination Ordered Weighted Averaging，C-OWA)改进直接影响矩阵，建立DEMATEL模型决策矩阵，并通过因果关系图识别关键风险因素，探究关键风险演化路径，以武汉市某工程项目为背景开展实证研究。结果表明:该项目存在X1(工人的专业水平与素质差)、X5(工人的技能培训与安全教育不到位)、X15(人员没有进行定期的安全培训)、X18(现场施工安全管理水平低)、X19(风险意识缺乏)等关键风险因素;在4条基础路径和2条复合路径中，复合路径的权重高于基础路径，随着关键风险之间直接和间接作用的复杂化，发生风险事件的可能性将逐步增加;复合路径除了通过基础路径与关键风险耦合得到以外，还可以通过基础路径的相互作用演化得到。
An enhanced DEMATEL method for analyzing key safety risks in hoisting construction of prefabricated buildings
To address the common issues of a missing risk assessment system and unclear evolution path in the safety evaluation of modular construction hoisting operations,and to enhance the scientific management level of construction safety,a method is proposed.This method is based on an improved version of Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)and aims to identify key safety risks and analyze their evolution path in the context of modular construction hoisting operations.First,a comprehensive evaluation indicator system is constructed through an open,axial,and selective coding analysis based on grounded theory.The system covers four core categories(personnel,equipment,environment,and management)and twenty main categories that are relevant to safety risks in modular construction hoisting operations.Secondly,the subjective weighting of the direct influence matrix is improved by utilizing the Continuous Ordered Weighted Averaging(C-OWA)operator.This leads to the establishment of a decision analysis matrix for the improved DEMATEL model.Subsequently,the DEMATEL model is integrated with the four-quadrant causal analysis diagram to identify key risk factors and explore the evolution path of these critical risks.Finally,the effectiveness and usability of the proposed method are validated through an empirical analysis of a specific modular hoisting project in Wuhan City.The analysis reveals the presence of key risk factors,such as X,(insufficient professional skills and qualities of workers),X5(inadequate training and safety education for workers),X15(lack of regular safety training for personnel),X18(low on-site construction safety management level),and X19(lack of risk awareness).When analyzing the four fundamental paths and two composite paths,it is observed that the weights of the composite paths are higher than those of the fundamental paths.As the direct and indirect interactions between key risks become more complex,the likelihood of risk events gradually increases.The composite paths not only result from the coupling of fundamental paths with key risks but also evolve through the interaction of fundamental paths.

safety engineeringprefabricated buildingshoisting constructionDecision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)key risksevolution path

李红兵、夏瑶徽、谢定坤、胡军

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武汉理工大学三亚科教创新园,海南三亚 572000

武汉理工大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉 430070

宁夏建设投资集团有限公司,银川 750000

安全工程 装配式建筑 塔吊施工 决策试验与实验室评估法(DEMATEL) 关键风险 演化路径

海南省重大科技计划项目三亚崖州湾科技城海南专项博士研究生科学研究基金项目

ZDKJ2021024HSPHDSRF-2022-03-001

2024

10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2023.0666

安全与环境学报
北京理工大学 中国环境科学学会 中国职业安全健康协会

安全与环境学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.943
ISSN：1009-6094
年,卷(期)：2024.24(4)
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