Research on dynamic risk assessment method of indoor gas leakage based on fuzzy DBN
To analyze the main causes of indoor gas leakage and the dynamic changes in the probability of different accident consequences that may occur after leakage,this paper establishes a Bow-Tie(BT)model for indoor gas leakage and uses the mapping algorithm of Bayesian networks to convert it into Dynamic Bayesian Network(DBN),making up for the shortcomings of previous static risk assessment.This method uses expert evaluation and trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the prior probability of basic events,and obtains the prior probability of barrier nodes through reference data;Using the reasoning and inverse inference functions of DBN,the failure probability of indoor gas leakage and its consequences as well as the posterior probability of each basic event are obtained;Use a prior probability and a posterior probability to calculate the sensitivity of each node,obtain the key risk factors leading to gas leakage through comparison,and propose targeted preventive measures based on the analysis results.Besides,the hidden danger is set as an evidence node to compare the dynamic changes of gas leakage risk when there is no evidence node and when the hidden danger exists.Finally,the model is applied to practical cases,which are divided into four nodes according to the time of the accident occurrence.The accident causes are input into the model in chronological order as evidence nodes,and the dynamic changes in the probability of gas leakage and the consequences of each accident are analyzed.The results show that the key risk factors obtained from the model can provide a reference for the prevention and control of residential gas safety risks;Finding hidden dangers through dynamic analysis will gradually increase the risk of indoor gas leakage over time;According to the actual case,the results obtained are consistent with the actual situation,verifying the feasibility of the model.
safety engineeringdynamic risk assessmentBow-Tie(BT)modelfuzzy set theoryDynamic Bayesian Network(DBN)gas leakiness
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
