Research on the impact of energy structure adjustment on carbon emissions based on system dynamics and inventory accounting method:a case study of Sichuan Province
By combining IPCC inventory guideline and provincial greenhouse gas inventory preparation guideline,the inventory accounting method for carbon emissions from energy consumption in Sichuan Province was constructed.Based on the heterogeneity perspective of energy structure and consumption sectors,the carbon emission characteristics of 15 types of energy consumption in 7 major departments in Sichuan Province were analyzed,and key carbon emission sources were identified.The prediction model was constructed based on the dynamic simulation advantages of system dynamics.Combining the natural evolution laws and policy planning objectives,future development scenarios were scientifically designed.On this basis,the carbon emission trajectory of energy consumption in Sichuan Province during the 14th Five Year Plan period.Finally,from the perspective of both the whole province and the key sectors,the effective paths of energy consumption structure adjustment in Sichuan Province under the"dual carbon"goal were proposed.The results show that:(1)Industry is the core sector of energy consumption carbon emissions,and the carbon contribution of the transportation industry and residents'life can not be ignored.(2)The consumption structure of Sichuan Province,which is dominated by coal and supplemented by oil and gas,determines the leading position of carbon emissions of coal products.The differentiated operation mechanism of various departments leads to the heterogeneity of the carbon emission structure of energy consumption.(3)From a provincial perspective,the"visible hand"of the government's low-carbon control can significantly control the level of carbon emissions.However,insufficient implementation would still result in a high level of historical cumulative value,which would affect the process of low-carbon energy transformation over a long period.(4)From the perspective of key sectors,the focus of industrial energy consumption structure adjustment is the reduction of raw coal consumption and the overall energy-saving and low-carbon transformation;the focus of the transportation industry is the low-carbon transformation of transportation tools and equipment and the improvement of clean energy utilization;the focus of residents'life is the popularization of low-carbon lifestyles such as green travel.
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