System dynamics-based forecasting on the development trend of chemical safety and emergency industry
叶然 1刘琪 1姜同 2潘勇 1王静虹 1王彦钧1
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作者信息
1. 南京工业大学安全科学与工程学院,南京 211800
2. 安元科技股份有限公司,南京 211800
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摘要
近年来,我国安全应急产业呈现突飞猛进的发展态势,产业需求日益增长,但尚缺少针对化工安全与应急产业发展态势的研究与政策支持分析.使用系统动力学模型,模拟了江苏省化工安全与应急产业2015-2030年的发展趋势.通过分析四个子系统之间的相互作用和反馈循环,揭示了企业数量、研究与发展(Research and Development,R&D)资金、市场需求和第二、三产业产值占比对产业集聚的影响.结果表明:随着企业数量增加,化工安全与应急产业集聚程度增大;R&D资金的增多及市场需求的增加均有助于促进化工安全与应急产业集聚;第三产业产值占GDP的比例较高时,化工安全与应急产业集聚程度也较高.这一研究不仅有望为政府决策提供参考依据,提高化工安全与应急产业的管理水平,还能为建设安全及可持续发展的化工产业体系提供指导.
Abstract
This study employs a system dynamics model to simulate the evolutionary trends of the chemical safety and emergency industry in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2030.Initially,a literature review is conducted to identify factors related to the chemical industry,forming four subsystems within the system dynamics framework:enterprise,technology,economy,and market subsystems.Subsequently,considering the interdependencies among these subsystems,20 factors influencing the development of the chemical industry are identified,and a system dynamics model is constructed using Anylogic software.The model's validity is further assessed using location quotient analysis.Taking the chemical safety and emergency industry in Jiangsu Province as an example,the model utilizes existing data from 2015 to 2021 to simulate and predict the aggregated output value of the chemical safety and emergency industry from 2022 to 2030.The impact of factors such as the number of enterprises,Research and Development(R&D)funding,market demand,and the proportion of the second and third industry output on industry agglomeration is revealed by analyzing the interactions and feedback loops among four subsystems.The results indicate that an increase in the number of enterprises leads to a higher degree of agglomeration in the chemical safety and emergency industry.Additionally,an increase in R&D funding and market demand both contribute to promoting industry agglomeration.When the proportion of the third industry output to GDP is high,the agglomeration degree of the chemical safety and emergency industry is also high.Overall,the development of the chemical safety and emergency industry will show a year-by-year upward trend,and the level of agglomeration will also steadily increase.This research not only holds the potential to provide a basis for government decision-making,thereby enhancing the management level of the chemical safety and emergency industry but also offers scientific guidance for the construction of a secure and sustainable chemical industry system.
关键词
安全工程/化工安全与应急产业/系统动力学/产业集聚/政策建议
Key words
safety engineering/chemical safety and emergency industry/system dynamics/industrial agglomeration/policy recommendations
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