首页|考虑多米诺效应的化工园区应急资源调配问题研究

考虑多米诺效应的化工园区应急资源调配问题研究

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在多米诺效应的影响下,化工园区的危险化学品事故具有复杂性和不可预测性,以化工园区的危险化学品固定式危险源、应急设施、应急救援车辆及应急资源为研究对象,开展了定量风险评估、应急设施选址问题及应急资源调配问题的研究,采用理论推导、仿真分析与算例应用验证相结合的方法,并优化改进了数学模型.结果表明,多米诺效应将增加该石化工业园的整体风险,在应急救援车辆路径规划中考虑区域风险分布能够有效规避危险化学品事故所造成的高风险区域,可为化工园区应急管理数字化转型、智能化升级提供理论与方法支撑.
Study on emergency resource allocation in chemical parks considering domino effect
This paper delves into a series of studies regarding quantitative risk assessment,the siting of emergency facilities,and the deployment of emergency resources in chemical parks.Firstly,focusing on fixed hazard sources of hazardous chemicals in the chemical industry park,this study describes the risk arising from such sources as a function of accident probability and the severity of its consequences,establishing a quantitative model.Utilizing this model,a method and process for quantitative risk assessment considering the domino effect are developed,alongside an enhanced Monte Carlo simulation method to estimate accident probability.The quantitative risk assessment results indicate that the domino effect can markedly elevate the regional risk level associated with stationary hazard source accidents involving hazardous chemicals.Secondly,leveraging the quantitative risk assessment outcomes,this paper formulates an emergency facility location model with optimization objectives aimed at minimizing the overall cost of facility construction while maximizing the total risk coverage of the facilities.The model incorporates the intensity of emergency demand by constructing an emergency demand level that describes the intensity,utilizing the classification index of major danger source identification method.The solution is devised using a weighted linear combination method and an augmentation-constraint method.Additionally,the TOPSIS method is employed to optimize the decision scheme.Finally,the problem of emergency resource allocation is addressed in two stages.The first stage involves the route planning of emergency rescue vehicles.Considering the risk factors associated with vehicles during driving,this study establishes a route planning method for emergency rescue vehicles that takes into account the risk distribution of the domino effect.It proposes a route search method called Dijkstra-Domino Effect Risk,which is based on cumulative risk value.The second stage involves the scheduling of emergency resources,aiming to prioritize the earliest commencement of emergency rescue activities,optimize the allocation of various emergency resources,and minimize the number of emergency rescue points required.The emergency resource scheduling model offers tailored scheduling schemes based on the varied decision preferences of managers.

safety engineeringemergency resource allocationemergency facility site selectionrisk assessmentemergency rescue

楚志勇、张孝春、蒋君豪、陈钦佩

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国家消防救援局天津训练总队,天津 300000

广东工业大学环境科学与工程学院,广州 510000

应急管理部天津消防研究所,天津 300381

安全工程 应急资源调配 应急设施选址 风险评估 应急救援

2024

安全与环境学报
北京理工大学 中国环境科学学会 中国职业安全健康协会

安全与环境学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.943
ISSN:1009-6094
年,卷(期):2024.24(5)