Research on risk assessment of key nodes in maritime transportation channels from the perspective of resilience
In this work,a framework is developed to evaluate the risks of the crucial points in China's maritime sea lanes of communication.These key points are susceptible to frequent external interference,such as maritime accidents,piracy hijacking incidents,and other emergencies.To assess the potential risks,a resilience-based assessment model is developed.This model is used to better understand how well these key points can handle external emergencies and return to a stable state.The factor index systems are constructed with the support of a literature review and the expert's judgment.These factors include natural conditions like width and depth,external disruptions like maritime accidents,piracy incidents,military conflicts,and recovery abilities.This research model considers the relationship between different risk factors and the uncertainty of evaluation measures.It utilizes an enhanced evidence reasoning model,incorporating factor analysis,to determine the most optimal value for each measurement.The Coefficient of Variation method and Entropy weight method are both utilized to determine the importance of each factor from a quantitative perspective.These two weight values are then treated as players in a Game theory,representing the strength of the information.An optimal weight optimization model is created to calculate the final weight for each factor.The results of this research indicate that the risk level for the Strait of Malacca,an important sea route for China's crude oil imports,is relatively high.Non-traditional security factors such as pirate attacks and terrorism,as well as insufficient legal guarantees,are identified as the main contributors to the risks associated with key locations.This study provides a theoretical basis for scientifically evaluating the risk status of key locations in maritime transportation routes.
public safetyrisk assessmentadvanced evidence reasoning modelmaritime transportation channelskey nodes
万方数据
维普
