Application of fuzzy inference system in the evaluation of inland navigation ris—taking the Yangtze River mainline as an example
This study aims to develop a scientific and effective risk assessment model for inland waterway navigation.Firstly,to effectively identify the influencing factors,408 historical accidents on the mainline of the Yangtze River were analyzed in terms of accident causation.Based on the results of the above accident causation analysis,and combined with the results of previous research,a categorized and graded risk assessment index system was constructed for the inland waterway navigation system.Then,the Catastrophe Theory(CT)was introduced into the Fuzzy Inference System(FIS),and the risk assessment model for inland waterway navigation based on CT-FIS was constructed.The model improves the defect that simple fuzzy rules are difficult to reflect the complex mapping relationships within complex systems.Finally,59 historical accidents on the mainline of the Yangtze River were taken as examples to verify the validity and reliability of the proposed model.The result of the case study shows that 88.1％of the 59 samples are in the medium and above risk level.This is consistent with the actual results of the samples.Further analysis of the risk assessment indicators for each level reveals that human factors are the primary factors leading to navigation accidents on the Yangtze River.Also,the result reveals that the influence of cargo and ships on navigation accidents on the mainline of the Yangtze River is relatively low compared with that of crew,management,and environmental factors.When human-controllable influencing factors are controlled in a safe state,the overall risk is greatly reduced.The contribution of this study is that the risk assessment model proposed in this paper provides a new way of solving the problem of risk evaluation of inland navigation and is a useful exploration of the risk evaluation method of the complex system.In addition,the results of the case study in this paper can provide some inspiration for the safety management of the Yangtze River shipping and promote the sustainable development of inland waterway shipping.
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