Research on variable weight fuzzy evaluation of risk in shale gas development
To elucidate the risk factors associated with shale gas development,a comprehensive analysis of a substantial body of literature was conducted using bibliometric methods.By providing a literature-based reference table for the risk indicator system and integrating risk identification theories,a comprehensive evaluation framework for shale gas development risks was established.The constant weights for various risk indicators were computed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and expert scoring method.Subsequently,the Variable Weighting Theory was introduced to dynamically adjust the constant weights derived from the AHP based on real-world circumstances,ensuring the feasibility of the weights for each indicator and thereby enhancing the accuracy of the evaluation results.Finally,by constructing a membership matrix,a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model based on the Variable Weighting Theory was established for assessing the risks associated with shale gas development.This study evaluated the shale gas development project in the Weiyuan region's 202H1 well area as a case study.The assessment results reveal that the geological risk indicator scores G1=60.5520,the development technology risk indicator scores G2=66.1820,the drilling risk indicator scores G3=71.0920,the transportation pipeline risk indicator scores G4=64.0466,the safety production risk indicator scores G5=66.9493,the environmental risk indicator scores G6=51.3382,and social risk indicator scores G7=44.3922.Ultimately,the comprehensive risk score for shale gas development in the Weiyuan region's 202H1 well area is G=64.6360.Among these evaluation results,the drilling risk score is the highest,and the social risk score is the lowest,indicating an overall high level of risk in shale gas development.Therefore,particular attention should be given to drilling safety and protective measures should be implemented during the actual development process;other risks should not be overlooked.Additionally,a comparison of the evaluation results with the development situation in the 202H1 well area validates the accuracy of the assessment results.
safety engineeringshale gas developmentrisk assessment systemvariable weight theoryfuzzy evaluation
万方数据
维普
