为了系统研究导致煤矿安全事故的人-机-环因素,结合煤矿实际,将设备因素、环境因素与人因分析和分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,HFACS)相结合,构建了煤矿安全事故的"弓弦箭"致因模型.其中,弓弦由设备因素11项、人因因素17项和环境因素11项的致因因素构成,箭表示发生不同人员伤亡数量、不同经济损失的安全事故,利用该模型可以综合描述煤矿安全事故发生的原因以及事故的后果.以"弓弦箭"致因模型为基础,借助蚁群聚类及Ucinet-netdraw方法,分别对100起典型煤矿安全事故进行分析研究.结果显示:(1)在统计的100起事故中,致因因素总频数为803,其中人因因素最高为644,占比80.2％,设备因素次之为92,占比11.5％,环境因素最少为67,占比8.3％;(2)以聚类数为4,最大迭代次数为1 000,蚂蚁个数为100,阈值为0.9,蒸发率为0.1进行蚁群聚类分析,得到4类煤矿安全事故致因因素,表明煤矿安全事故是由设备因素、环境因素和人因因素交织作用产生,其中人因因素是最重要的致因因素,且操作者的不安全行为技能差错、决策差错、知觉差错和违反规章制度表现出一定的独立性;(3)Ucinet-netdraw分析显示煤矿安全事故的关键致因路径为:"管理过程漏洞"→"监督不充分"→"个人准备状态"→"违反规章制度".
Research on the comprehensive causative model of coal mine safety accidents
To systematically study the human-machine-environmental factors leading to coal mine safety accidents,equipment factors,environmental factors,and Human Factor Analysis and Classification Systems(HF ACS)are combined with actual coal mines.A"bowstring and arrow"causal model of coal mine safety accidents was constructed,in which the bowstring consists of 11 equipment factors,17 human factors,and 11 environmental factors.The arrows represent safety accidents with different numbers of casualties and economic losses.This model can be used to comprehensively describe the causes and consequences of coal mine safety accidents.Using the"Bowstring Arrow"causal model,ant colony clustering and the Ucinet-netdraw method were used to analyze and study 100 typical coal mine safety accidents.The results show that(1)among the 100 accidents identified,803 are causative factors in total frequency,with human factors having the highest frequency(644)accounting for 80.2％,equipment factors taking the second place(92)accounting for 11.5％,and environmental factors having the lowest frequency(67)accounting for 8.3％.(2)Antial colony clustering analysis was conducted with 4 clusters,a maximum number of iterations of 1 000,a total number of ants of 100,a threshold value of 0.9,and an evaporation rate of 0.1.The 4 classes of causal factors of coal mine safety accidents were obtained,indicating that coal mine safety accidents were caused by the intertwined effects of equipment factors,environmental factors,and human factors,among which human factors were the most important causal factors,and operators'unsafe behavioral skills,decision-making errors,perceptual errors,and violations showed a certain degree of independence.Errors,decision-making errors,perceptual errors,and violations indicate a certain degree of independence.(3)The Ucinet-netdraw analysis reveals that the key causal path for coal mine safety accidents is"management process loopholes"→"insufficient supervision"→"personal readiness"→"violations".
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