Simulation study on the efficacy of policies regarding retired new energy vehicle batteries
This paper aims to explore the effectiveness of incentive policies aimed at promoting the recycling of retired New Energy Vehicle Batteries(NEVBs)in China.Taking into account the current state of China's NEVBs recycling industry,a system dynamics model integrating costs and benefits was constructed to simulate the trajectory of China's NEVBs recycling from 2018 to 2035.Additionally,multi-scenario policy simulations were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of three typical policies:promoting technological innovation,offering subsidies and tax incentives,and advancing cascade utilization.The findings indicate that:(1)Recycling of NEVBs offers both economic and environmental advantages.Nevertheless,the economic feasibility of the industry's initial phase is relatively modest,with an anticipated return on investment of below 10％before 2026.(2)In comparison to the baseline scenario devoid of policy intervention,the policy aimed at promoting technological innovation demonstrates effectiveness in boosting metal resource recycling and lowering recycling unit costs.This reduction in costs and enhancement in efficiency are anticipated to foster sustainable industrial progress.By 2035,it is projected that lithium metal recovery could increase by 25.3％.(3)The subsidy and tax rebate policy could effectively boost the investment return rate,thereby incentivizing enterprises to expand their recycling capacity.Offering a unit recycling subsidy of 10-15 yuan per kilowatt-hour can notably boost the recovery volume of NEVBs.(4)The policy of advancing cascaded utilization can better harness the remaining value of retired batteries,thereby reducing their lifecycle carbon emissions.Under the scenario of increasing the cascaded utilization rate to 50％,it is projected that by 2035,nearly 4.3 million tons of carbon emissions could be reduced.(5)The impact of the three policies exhibits a coupling effect,resulting in the recovery of decommissioned batteries in 2035 reaching close to 8 million tons under the combined scenario.Based on the policy simulation results,recommendations are proposed to promote the development of China's new energy vehicle battery recycling industry.
environmental engineeringnew energy vehicleretired batteriesrecyclingpolicy effectsystem dynamics
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