Investigation of the coupled assessment method for tunnel construction collapse risk
In order to enhance the precision of tunnel construction collapse risk assessment,this paper introduces a"risk coupling"assessment method that is founded on the multi-indicator and coupling characteristics of risk assessment.Initially,a bibliometric study utilizing the keyword"tunnel risk assessment"highlights the scarcity of research concerning the influence of risk coupling on risk assessment outcomes.Secondly,our study conducted a statistical analysis of accidents to identify 14 key risk indicators contributing to tunnel collapses.These risk indicators include factors such as the scale of fault fracture zone,angle between tunnel axis,rock mass integrity,development of joints and fissures,compressive strength of rock,uniaxial saturated strength,unsymmetrical pressure,groundwater conditions,precipitation levels,rock permeability,geological exploration accuracy,tunnel span,burial depth,excavation method,and support status.By establishing corresponding risk level thresholds,we developed a robust tunnel collapse risk evaluation system.Moreover,we employed mechanism analysis and system dynamics modeling to construct a coupling path of tunnel collapse indicators.The results of our analysis demonstrated a clear positive coupling among all the identified risk indicators and their collective impact on tunnel collapse incidents.Subsequently,we introduce a blend of the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and K-Means algorithm to determine the weights.Following this,we apply the probability density function and cumulative distribution function to quantify the degree of association of the chosen disaster-causing indicators.Lastly,the proposed coupling degree formula incorporates quantitative calculations of the coupling impact,leading to the establishment of the"risk coupling"assessment model.This model was then implemented in the assessment of construction collapse risk for a water tunnel in China.Remarkably,the assessment results aligned with the actual project records,validating the effectiveness of the proposed model.The accuracy rate of determining whether the tunnel is undergoing collapse reaches an impressive 80.3％.As construction advances,the type of grade distribution for each indicator may undergo changes,allowing for the recalculation of indicator grade affiliations.This enhances the robustness of the assessment method.The introduction of the"risk coupling"assessment method provides a novel perspective for evaluating the risk of tunnel construction collapse,promising significant advancements in this field.
万方数据
维普
