Analyzing the risk factors of ship self-sinking accidents using a complex network approach with an N-K model integration
To quantitatively assess the correlation between risk factors contributing to ship self-sinking incidents and pinpoint the pivotal factors behind such accidents,this research incorporates a complex network methodology coupled with the N-K model.The analysis focuses on 136 ship self-sinking accident cases documented by the China Maritime Safety Administration.Initially,through an examination of accident causality,15 secondary risk factors were extracted from four primary risk categories:human factors,ship factors,management factors,and environmental factors.Subsequently,their interplay in terms of risk coupling was investigated.Secondly,the study applies the N-K model to estimate the likelihood of occurrence and the risk magnitude associated with the coupling of primary risk factors.The approach also constructs a network that associates second-level risk factors as nodes and causal connections as edges.By conducting analyses on risk accessibility and centrality of network nodes,our goal is to investigate and initially discern the mechanisms underlying these risk factors.Furthermore,we refine node centrality using the coupling value derived from the N-K model,enabling us to pinpoint the ultimate crucial secondary risk factors.Lastly,cohesive subgroups within the intricate network of causes leading to ship self-sinking accidents were identified and analyzed to generate a density matrix.This matrix was then utilized to pinpoint second-level risk factors with the most substantial risk correlation.The findings indicate that within the two-factor risk coupling,the values for human-ship and ship-management risk coupling are notably higher.In particular,the coupling value between human and ship risks stands out significantly compared to other risk couplings.Ship-related factors exhibit a higher propensity to interact with other elements,especially when combined with human factors,thus increasing the likelihood of accidents.Among the three risk coupling factors,human-ship-management and human-ship-environment coupling values are relatively elevated,indicating a tendency for human and ship factors to intertwine with other variables.The primary second-level risk factors contributing to ship sinking accidents encompass deficient safety awareness,corporate negligence in meeting obligations,insufficient ship and company management,vessel malfunctions,and ship unseaworthiness.Notably,weak safety awareness exhibits the most robust correlation with other risk factors,potentially triggering cascading effects leading to accidents.Thus,preventative measures should prioritize addressing this factor.
万方数据
维普
