Research on coupling effect and spillover path of security risks of major infrastructure project along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
The interweaving and overlapping of geopolitical games,regional conflicts,extreme weather events,and other factors have brought serious challenges to the security risk alarm of major projects along the"Belt and Road".To study the coupling mechanism and key role of risk nodes,this paper took the complex transmission between traditional security risks and non-traditional security risks along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as the research object.By extracting key security risk factors through grounded theory and data analysis,a dynamic model of security risk evolution of the overseas major project from two dimensions of single path transmission and diffusion transmission was constructed.The improved coupling calculation method measured the correlation of risk nodes with global thinking;based on the improved node importance calculation method L-onion,the driving role of key risk factors in different risk evolution processes was quantified by using the coupling strength and clustering trend of risk factors.The findings of the study show that(1)crime rates,inflation,national fiscal deficits,unemployment,regulatory and policy changes,and price increases of social and economic risks are the core elements driving the evolution of security risks in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)over the period 2018-2021;(2)Inflation and price rise play an important transmission role in the risk network,with inflation exacerbating the signs of risk pooling,price rises lengthening the risk chain and creating new risk chains,and regulations and policies making the links between risks stronger and spreading them faster;(3)Under systems thinking,military conflict is most strongly associated with the risk of terrorism,followed by the growth of corruption,regulatory and policy changes,and unemployment.The research methods and conclusions can provide practical guidance for dynamic monitoring and early warning of security risks of overseas major projects in the new era.
public safetyChina-Pakistan Economic Corridorcoupling strengthnode clusteringdynamic evolution
万方数据
维普
