首页|模糊赋权-TOPSIS在流域盆地洪泛区洪水风险测度中的应用

模糊赋权-TOPSIS在流域盆地洪泛区洪水风险测度中的应用

扫码查看
沿海沿河流低洼地区洪涝频发、损失严重,严重影响流域公共安全,有效识别流域盆地洪泛区内的洪水风险分布至关重要。传统基于单一多准则决策方法的风险测度模型无法兼顾决策者的有效经验和决策的客观合理性,同时计算所得的绝对洪水风险值无法准确识别潜在洪水风险。为解决这一问题,提出了一种优化的集成模型,以澳大利亚乔治河流域洪泛区为例开展洪水风险测度研究。从危险性、暴露度和脆弱性三个维度选取12个风险指标,采用模糊逻辑改进的三角模糊层次分析法优化权重计算过程、集成接近理想点法中相对邻近度的概念完成相对洪水风险测度,最后可视化分析了洪水风险的空间分布状况。结果表明,集成模型识别出的中等及以上风险区比单一三角模糊层次分析法多17。1%,比接近理想点法多15。7%,在识别洪泛区潜在风险上表现更优。利用历史灾情验证集证明了模型的优越性。该研究框架可为流域洪泛区的防灾策略制定提供决策支持。
Applying fuzzy weighting and TOPSIS for flood risk assessment in flood-prone areas within watershed basins
To quantitatively measure flood risk in flood-prone areas within watershed basins,we proposed an integrated risk measurement model based on fuzzy weighting-TOPSIS.Twelve risk indicators were identified,considering factors related to causative factors,disaster-prone environments,and disaster-bearing bodies,encompassing flood hazard,exposure,and vulnerability indicators.We utilized the Triangular Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(TFAHP),enhanced with fuzzy logic,to compute the weights of these indicators.The flood risk assessment was conducted utilizing the concept of relative closeness within the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution(TOPSIS).As an illustration,the flood risk in three local government areas(Liverpool,Fairfield,and Canterbury-Bankstown)within the Georges River Basin in Australia was evaluated.The results reveal that distance to river-elevation weighting,maximum 3-day rainfall,and land use type are the primary contributors to flood risk,with weights of 0.312,0.164,and 0.137,respectively.Flood risk levels exhibit significant variations among regions.Medium to high-risk areas are concentrated in the central-eastern part of Liverpool,the eastern part of Fairfield,and the central part of Canterbury-Bankstown,while the western and southern regions of Liverpool demonstrate relatively low flood risks.The integrated TFAHP-TOPSIS model identifies 15.6%more medium to high-risk areas compared to the individual TFAHP method,and 17.1%more than the single TOPSIS method,effectively identifying additional potential flood risks.Furthermore,a comparison with a historical disaster validation set confirms the superiority of the TFAHP-TOPSIS integrated model.This integrated approach harnesses the strengths of both TFAHP and TOPSIS,enhancing its effectiveness in assessing flood risk.It discerns the variances in indicator contributions through TFAHP,effectively leveraging decision-makers'subjective expertise.Concurrently,TOPSIS establishes the relative superiority and inferiority order of solutions based on objective information from indicator attribute values,ensuring decision objectivity.The assessment outcomes offer valuable insights for devising disaster prevention strategies in flood-prone areas within watersheds.

public safetypotential flood riskmultiple-criteria decision makingTriangular Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(TFAHP)Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)

孙海、于祺伟、王小华、张孝伟、阮雪景

展开 >

中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛 266000

中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室,山东青岛 266100

澳大利亚西悉尼大学工程、设计与建筑环境学院,新南威尔士州悉尼2745

澳大利亚新南威尔士大学堪培拉校区中澳海岸带管理研究中心理学院,首都地区堪培拉2600

青岛农业大学建筑工程学院,山东青岛 266109

展开 >

公共安全 潜在洪水风险 多准则决策 三角模糊层次分析法(TFAHP) 接近理想点法(TOPSIS)

国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目青岛市自然科学基金项目

41906185U190160223-2-1-61-zyydjch

2024

安全与环境学报
北京理工大学 中国环境科学学会 中国职业安全健康协会

安全与环境学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.943
ISSN:1009-6094
年,卷(期):2024.24(10)
  • 4