Analysis of causal factors in civilian bottled Liquefied Petroleum Gas(LPG)explosion accidents from the perspective of complex socio-technical systems
Exploring the causal factors of civilian bottled Liquefied Petroleum Gas(LPG)explosion accidents is crucial for preventing such incidents and ensuring public safety.First,we collected data on 110 typical cases of civilian bottled LPG explosions in mainland China from 2014 to 2023,allowing us to clarify the characteristics of the accident system.Next,the Rasmussen Risk Management Framework(RRMF)was utilized to establish a six-level hierarchical structure for accidents.Based on the verification materials related to these incidents,19 typical causal factors were identified,leading to the development of the AcciMap model.Finally,a quantitative analysis framework was developed by integrating the AcciMap model with a Bayesian Network(BN).Key causal factors were identified through diagnostic reasoning and sensitivity analysis.The results of the analysis reveal that civilian bottled LPG explosion accidents are driven by two key causal chains:unsafe behaviors and unsafe physical conditions.The key causal chain for'unsafe behavior'is as follows:inadequate safety production supervision and law enforcement inspection(A1)→ failure to implement main responsibilities for safety production(C1)→ deficiencies in safety management and hazard rectification(C2)→shortcomings in safety training and emergency management(C3)→ gaps in safety awareness and capabilities(D1)→ illegal operation of LPG cylinders or appliances(D2)→ LPG leakage and accumulation(F1)→ civilian bottled LPG explosion accident(F2).The key causal chain for'unsafe physical states'is as follows:inadequate safety production supervision and law enforcement inspection(A1)→ failure to implement main responsibilities for safety production(C1)→ deficiencies in safety management and hazard rectification(C2)→ flaws in safety protection equipment or measures(E3)→ LPG leakage and accumulation(F1)→ civilian bottled LPG explosion accident(F2).There are seven key causal factors,which include:inadequate safety production supervision and law enforcement inspection(A1),illegal or unqualified operation and supply of bottled LPG(B2),failure to implement main responsibilities for safety production(C1),deficiencies in safety management and hazard rectification(C2),shortcomings in safety training and emergency management(C3),illegal operation of LPG cylinders or appliances(D2),and flaws in safety protection equipment or measures(E3).The conclusion is that targeted risk prevention,control,and governance measures should be implemented through collaborative efforts among local government and regulatory agencies,as well as business and user units involved with civilian bottled LPG,to effectively address the key causal factors.
public safetyliquefied petroleum gasRasmussen risk management frameworkAcciMapBayesian network
万方数据
维普
