Dynamics of ecological risk and spatial-temporal non-stationarity of its driving factors in the major grain-producing areas of the lower Yellow River
This study used the major grain-producing areas of the lower Yellow River as the research zone and constructed the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Management(DPSIRM)model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological risks.By using kernel density estimation,the dynamic evolution and aggregation trends of ecological risk were explored.The GeoDetector model was used to analyze the drivers of ecological risks,while the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)was employed to test the spatiotemporal non-stationarity of the main driving factors.The results suggest that,from 2000 to 2020,the driver subsystem varied most significantly in the study area,and the response subsystem was relatively stable.The internal spatial differences between the influence subsystem and the response subsystem were the largest,and the high-risk zone of each subsystem was more stable on the spatial scale.The comprehensive ecological risk level was medium,with a general trend of increasing and then decreasing.The area of the low-risk zone increased by 50 650.25 km2,the high-risk zone migrated from east to west and the area decreased by 9 995.72 km2,and the high-risk zone was mainly located in Zhengzhou and Jiaozuo in the Henan section.There was no significant difference in the distribution of the ecological risk in the Shandong section and no high-risk zone existed in this section.The core drivers of ecological risks were economic density,GDP growth rate,effective irrigation rate,and sewage treatment rate,all with an average explanatory power of over 50％.The interactions between socioeconomic and natural environmental factors were the primary reasons for spatial differentiation in ecological risks.Ecological risk drivers showed non-stationarity on time and spatial scales,with variations both in the intensity and direction of the drivers.In detail,economic density was positively correlated with ecological risk and the intensity of the impact weakening;the growth rate of GDP over the same period and the sewage treatment rate were negatively correlated with ecological risk and the intensity of the impact increasing;the impact of effective rate of irrigation on ecological risk changed both in the direction and intensity.
environmentalologyecological riskdriving force-pressure-state-impact-response-management modeldriving factorsnon-stationaritythe major grain-producing areas of the lower Yellow River
万方数据
维普
