Aviation carbon market and sustainable aviation fuel under carbon neutrality goals research on the benefits of collaborative emission reduction
This study aims to provide strategic and policy support for the green transformation of China's civil aviation industry by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the application potential of Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF)and the aviation carbon market mechanism,and assessing the emission reduction benefits of their synergistic effects.The methodology uses a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Backpropagation Neural Network(GA-BP)model to predict the phased aviation fuel demand for China's civil aviation from 2025 to 2060.Subsequently,a CO2 emission model based on future energy needs is constructed,followed by the development of an aviation carbon market emission reduction model to analyze the synergistic emission reduction benefits under various combinations of carbon market and SAF quota scenarios.The results indicate:(1)Under the high application scenario,by 2060,the demand for SAF in China will reach 69 million tons,and carbon emissions can be reduced by up to 87.4％compared to the baseline scenario;(2)The increased application of SAF also puts tremendous pressure on the aviation industry in terms of emission reduction costs,and airlines have to pay an additional emission reduction cost of 1 247.19 billion yuan to decarbonize with SAF from 2025 to 2060;(3)When the free carbon quota ratio is 0.8 and the carbon price reaches 500 yuan per ton,airlines can earn 1 314.883 billion yuan through carbon market emissions reduction.However,if the carbon quota is too low,airlines may not profit from carbon market emissions reductions,and even pay additional emission reduction costs to meet the carbon market emission reduction requirements.Therefore,the increased application of SAF can effectively reduce the carbon emissions of the aviation industry but also bring significant economic pressure to the sector.Under a suitable carbon market mechanism,airlines can profit from SAF emission reduction.It is recommended that the government provide necessary financial subsidies and tax incentives while optimizing carbon market policies to ensure the economic feasibility of airlines during the emission reduction process.
万方数据
维普
