Exploring the carbon emission reduction effects,drivers,and peak carbon strategies in China's energy structure transformation
This paper analyzes the carbon reduction effects and driving factors associated with the transformation of China's energy consumption structure.Utilizing China's energy consumption data from 2001 to 2022 and employing inventory algorithms,we estimate the carbon reduction impact of this transformation.Additionally,we use ridge regression to examine the driving factors behind the changes in energy consumption structure and mathematically demonstrate the conditions necessary for achieving a peak in carbon emissions related to energy consumption.The findings of this paper reveal that China's carbon emissions from energy consumption rose from 1.012 billion tons at the beginning of the period to 3.076 billion tons by the end.This growth occurred in three distinct phases,characterized by a gradual slowdown in the rate of emissions increase:the high-carbon mitigation stage of energy structure,the low-carbon unstable stage,and the year-on-year low-carbon stage.Secondly,over the 22-year period,the comprehensive carbon emission coefficient of energy decreased from 0.651 tC/tce to 0.569 tC/tce,indicating a gradual transformation toward a low-carbon energy consumption structure.This shift resulted in a total carbon emissions reduction of approximately 3.105 billion tons attributable to changes in the energy structure.Thirdly,the transformation of the energy structure is positively influenced by factors such as economic scale,energy efficiency,technological investment,and environmental regulations.Notably,the interaction between technological investment and environmental regulation has a more pronounced effect than any single factor alone.Additionally,carbon emission intensity negatively impacts the transformation of the energy structure.The government should prioritize increasing the implementation of factors that have a positive impact on driving energy structure transformation.This will help expedite the development of an effective mechanism to achieve the carbon peak in energy production,with a focus on energy structure transformation.The research findings provide valuable theoretical guidance and practical references for promoting energy structure transformation and quantifying its impact on carbon emission reduction.Moreover,these findings contribute to the efforts towards achieving the energy carbon peak.
万方数据
维普
