蚌埠医学院学报2024,Vol.49Issue(5) :597-600.DOI:10.13898/j.cnki.issn.1000-2200.2024.05.009

AMI病人PCI术后2年内发生主要心血管不良事件的列线图模型构建及验证

Construction and validation of a nomogram model for major cardiovascular adverse events in acute myocardial infarction patients within 2 years after percutaneous coronary intervention

罗钢 高丽 丁宏 李胜辉 翟康宁 陈震
蚌埠医学院学报2024,Vol.49Issue(5) :597-600.DOI:10.13898/j.cnki.issn.1000-2200.2024.05.009

AMI病人PCI术后2年内发生主要心血管不良事件的列线图模型构建及验证

Construction and validation of a nomogram model for major cardiovascular adverse events in acute myocardial infarction patients within 2 years after percutaneous coronary intervention

罗钢 1高丽 1丁宏 1李胜辉 1翟康宁 1陈震1
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作者信息

  • 1. 蚌埠医科大学附属泰兴市人民医院 心内科,江苏 泰兴225400
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摘要

目的:研究影响急性心肌梗死(AMI)病人经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)术后2年内发生主要心血管不良事件(MACE)的危险因素,构建列线图模型并验证.方法:回顾性分析AMI行PCI术病人491例临床资料,将病人以7:3比例随机分为建模组345例和验证组146例.采用单因素和多因素logistic回归分析,对建模组病人2年内发生MACE的影响因素进行分析,构建列线图模型并进行验证.结果:单因素及多因素logistic回归分析显示,年龄、fQRS波、Gensini评分、中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞均为AMI病人PCI术后2年内发生MACE的独立影响因素(P<0.05~P<0.01).经绘制列线图,建模组AUC为0.743,表明该模型区分度良好,H-L曲线拟合良好(x2=3.827,P=0.922),验证组AUC为0.720,提示模型准确度良好.结论:年龄、fQRS波、Gensini评分、中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞是AMI病人PCI术后2年内发生MACE的独立危险因素,构建的列线图模型具有良好预测作用.

Abstract

Objective:To study the risk factors of major adverse cardiovascular events in acute myocardial infarction ( AMI) patients within 2 years after percutaneous coronary intervention ( PCI),construct a nomogram model and verify it. Methods:The clinical data of 491 patients with AMI undergoing PCI were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were randomly divided into a modeling group of 345 cases and a validation group of 146 cases in a 7:3 ratio. The influencing factors of major adverse cardiovascular events in the modeling group within 2 years were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis,and a nomogram model was constructed and verified. Results:Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age,fQRS wave,Gensini score and neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio ( NLR) were independent influencing factors of major adverse cardiovascular events in AMI patients within 2 years after PCI (P<0. 05 to P<0. 01). The nomogram was drawn,and the AUC of the modeling group was 0. 743,showing that the model had good discrimination,the H-L curve was well fitted (x2=3. 827,P=0. 922),and the AUC of the validation group was 0. 720,indicating that the model was accurate. Conclusions:The age,fQRS wave,Gensini score and NLR are independent risk factors for major adverse cardiovascular events in AMI patients within 2 years after PCI,and the nomogram model has a good predictive function.

关键词

急性心肌梗死/主要心血管不良事件/经皮冠状动脉介入/列线图

Key words

acute myocardial infarction/major adverse cardiovascular events/percutaneous coronary intervention/nomogram

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基金项目

江苏省泰州市科技支撑计划社会发展(指导性)项目(2021-16)

蚌埠医学院科研创新计划项目(Byycx20081)

江苏大学临床医学科技发展项目(JLY2021191)

江苏省泰兴市人民医院院级科研项目(try2129)

出版年

2024
蚌埠医学院学报
蚌埠医学院

蚌埠医学院学报

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.917
ISSN:1000-2200
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