首页|1956-2006年阿克苏河径流变化及其对区域水资源安全的可能影响

1956-2006年阿克苏河径流变化及其对区域水资源安全的可能影响

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应用新疆塔里木河流域天山南坡阿克苏河流域1956-2006年的实测径流资料, 分析了阿克苏河流域各支流径流变化的特征与趋势. 结果表明, 近50 a来, 阿克苏河流域径流量呈显著的增加趋势, 其中冰川融水是其主要贡献量. 径流量在1994年发生了增多的跃变, 原因可能是气温持续升高引起冰川消融径流急剧增多, 导致以冰川融水补给为主的河流径流量大增. 这种趋势能够持续多久, 取决于未来的气候变化及流域上游冰川系统的响应. 随着冰川的加剧退缩和较小冰川的消失, 短期内会给阿克苏河流域带来丰富的水资源;但是随着冰川补给峰值过后径流量逐渐减小, 将会给塔里木河流域带来严重的水资源和生态安全问题. 冰川的强烈退缩, 还会带来一系列的洪水灾害问题.
Runoff Changes in Aksu River Basin during 1956-2006 and Their Impacts on Water Availability for Tarim River
Based on the 1956-2006 runoff data from the Aksu River Basin, the characteristics and trends of runoff variation were analyzed. It was found that runoff presented an increasingly significant trend in the last 50 years in the Aksu River Basin. Glacier water is considered the main contributor. The runoff and high altitude temperatures began to increase eminently from the mid - 1990s. The snowlines of the glacier system will readjust if the 0 ℃ level height exceeds the altitude of the distribution of the largest glacier areas, which will bring a great deal of glacier water and a possible occurrence in the reversal of runoff from more to less. Over the past 10 years, climate warming has resulted in significant snow cover and glacier wastage, with precipitous occurrences in flooding along with an increase in magnitude. The increase in runoff mitigates the drought during the spring, to a certain extent, but also brings about flood disasters.

unoff variationwater availabilitysnowlineAksu River basin

王国亚、沈永平、苏宏超、王进、毛炜峄、高前兆、王顺德

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中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730000

中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000

新疆水文水资源局,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830000

阿克苏水文水资源勘测局,新疆,阿克苏843000

新疆气候中心,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830002

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径流变化 水资源安全 冰川雪线 阿克苏河流域

{H}国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划){H}国家自然科学基金{H}中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目

2007CB41150740771047KZCX2-YW-127

2008

冰川冻土
中国地理学会 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

冰川冻土

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.546
ISSN:1000-0240
年,卷(期):2008.30(4)
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