A Precipitation Series of A. D. 1396-2005 in Aksu River Basin on the Southern Slopes of Tianshan Mountains: Reconstruction and Analysis
In this paper, the tree-ring samples of Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey collected from six sites in the Aksu River basin on the southern slopes of Tianshan Mountains in 2005 are used to development six tree-ring width chronologies, u-sing standard dendrochronological methods. Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlation coefficient was 0. 637 (significant is much greater than the 99. 9 percent level) between YAT standard chronologies and precipitation from last August to April in Aksu River Basin. The result has distinct physiological significance. A 600-a precipitation series was well reconstructed and its explain variance was 46.0% by means of the tree-ring chronology series. It was verified that the reconstructed precipitation was reliable by leave-one- out. Some results obtained by analyzing the 600-a reconstructed precipitation series are: 1) there were significant change cycles of 2～2. 5 a, 12～13 a, 45 a, 50 a, 58 a; 2) there were 5 abrupt changes in 1584, 1615, 1685, 1722, 1753; 3) there were nine wet periods above its means and nine dry periods below its means; 4) In the century-scale, precipitations of the 15th, the 19th and the 20th centuries were relatively stable; There was a precipitation increasing tendency in the past 600 years. The 15th and 17th centuries were relatively drought, and in each beginning of the century it was the most humid. The interannual precipitation changing trend is uneven, with frequent natural disasters (water, drought and snowstorm).
southern slopes of Tianshan MountainsAksu River Basintree-ringreconstructed precipitation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
