The main meteorological elements based on daily meteorological records for the period of 1960-2009 from 96 stations in Southwest China is used for picking the factors involving icing conditions.A database of geographical factors,including longitude,latitude,slope,aspect and sky-view factors is set up by using 1 km×1 km digital elevation model（DEM） and GIS.Based on the mathematical theorem of tendency simulation and stepwise regression,a grid of icing meteorological element and icing comprehensive evaluation index is established by ArcMap/Info.From this index,Southwest China can be zoned for 3 ranks of icing intensity.It is found that the trend of the series of days with icing conditions has increased significantly since 2000.The risk of the icing would be increasing.Icing conditions and icing intensity（risk） models are developed and all pass the significant level 0.05.Generally,the effect of macro-topographic factors is greater.The accuracy of relative humidity model and sunshine duration model will be improved by micro-topographic factors corrected.A map based on icing intensity（risk） model in Southwest China is presented,which shows the distribution of icing risk clearly and agrees with the actual situation vary well.
icingtendency simulationstepwise regressionsouthwest China
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据
