Simulating and estimating the climate change in the Indus River Basin,South Asia, based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
Based on monthly temperature and precipitation grid datasets from CRU (Climatic Research Unit),APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation:Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) and CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5) models,the simulation ability of CMIP5 models in the Indus River Basin (IRB) is evaluated for the period 1961-2005.For improving the simulation ability,the systematic bias between CMIP5 and CRU/APHRODITE is corrected by the equidistant CDF matching method (EDCDFm) firstly and then the possible change of climate change is estimated in the IRB during 2046-2065and 2081-2100 subsequently.The results show that the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble can capture the temporal variation and the spatial distribution characteristics of annual mean temperature quite satisfactory,with temporal and spatial correlation between the CMIP5 and CRU reaching the significant level of 0.01,and summer temperature simulation results are obviously better than other months.On the other hand,CMIP5 ensembles can also reproduce seasonal variation of precipitation quite well.Based on the bias-corrected results,it is estimated that the annual averaged temperature over the whole basin will continuously increase under Scenarios RCP2.6,4.5,8.5 during 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 relative to those during 1986-2005,with the maximum increasing scope in the upstream areas.Annual precipitation will also increase with the exception of weak decrease during mid-21 st century under Scenario RCP4.5.The persistently rising of summer temperature might cause further glacier ablation,and impact the local freshwater availability.The contribution of spring precipitation to water resources in the middle and high altitude areas will decrease.Increase in precipitation in northern high altitude areas will be favorable to glacier accumulation and increase water resources,while the decreasing precipitation in eastern high altitude areas will reduce water resources.Summer precipitation almost increases over the whole basin during both mid and late 21 st century.The risk of flood disasters will increase.It is estimated that warm events and heavy rainfall events may increase in the Indus River Basin as well.
climate changeclimate modelScenario RCPIndus River Basin
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
