首页|气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析

气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析

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利用累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验和有序聚类方法，对长江中游5个水文站1961-2014年径流量进行突变检验，并应用降雨-径流多元线性经验模型，定量评估长江中游气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。研究结果表明：径流量多年来呈线性减少的趋势，随降水量的变化而变化。径流突变点为1968年和2006年，1969-2005年枝城、沙市、监利、城陵矶和螺山站控制流域人类活动对径流变化影响的贡献率分别为85.68％、50.89％、84.78％、89.81％和68.39％；2006-2014年人类活动的贡献率分别为88.40％、59.47％、82.86％、80.03％、63.63％，人类活动的贡献率高于气候变化。
The effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River
The impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were investigated with four approaches:the cumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall test,ordered clustering method and multiple linear empirical model.It is found that runoff has slowly decreased linearly for many years with precipitation change.1968 and 2006 were the runoff abrupt change years. From 1969 through 2005,the human activities in the catchments controlled by Zhicheng,Shashi,Jianli,Chenglingji and Luoshan stations had contributed 85. 68%,50. 89%,84. 78%,89. 81%and 68. 39%,respectively,to the runoff de-crease.From 2006 to 2014,the human activities in the catchments had contributed 88. 40%,59. 47%,82. 86%, 80. 03%and 63. 63%,respectively,to the runoff decrease.The contribution ratio of human activity is higher than that of climate change.

climate changehuman activitycontribution raterunoffrainfall-runoff empirical multivariate lin-ear modelthe middle reaches of the Yangtze River

代稳、吕殿青、李景保、王金凤

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湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院，湖南长沙410081

六盘水师范学院，贵州六盘水553004

气候变化 人类活动 贡献率 径流量变化 降雨-径流多元线性经验模型 长江中游

国家自然科学基金贵州省科学技术基金湖南省重点学科建设项目

41571100黔科合LH字［2015］7632号2011001

2016

10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0055

冰川冻土
中国地理学会 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

冰川冻土

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.546
ISSN：1000-0240
年,卷(期)：2016.38(2)
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