温升背景下"亚洲水塔"流域水资源压力现状及未来预估
Current situation and future prediction of water stress in basins around the Asian Water Tower under the background of global warming
孔伟明 1韦孟丹 1胡垚坤 1梁巧霞 1张晓敏 1罗建华 2张伟3
作者信息
- 1. 中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000;中国科学院大学,北京 100049
- 2. 新疆水利发展投资(集团)有限公司,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000
- 3. 中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
- 折叠
摘要
"亚洲水塔"流域养育着亚洲十几亿人口,对全球经济发展起着至关重要的作用.在气候变暖背景下,"亚洲水塔"流域的水资源快速变化以及不断增长的人类活动用水需求,使水塔流域水资源压力风险越显突出.为了解"亚洲水塔"流域水资源压力的状况及未来变化,基于部门间影响模式比较计划(ISIMIP)中全球水文模型的径流和用水数据,利用水压力指数方法,系统评估了"亚洲水塔"21个流域的水压力状况和未来的可能变化.结果表明:1971-2010年间,"亚洲水塔"21个流域的水压力总体上呈现升高趋势,多年平均水压力等级达到高或以上的流域为印度河流域、塔里木河流域和黄河流域;针对"亚洲水塔"21个流域未来水压力的变化预估,各流域水压力表现为先增加,之后不同流域表现出持续增加(2个流域)、趋于稳定(5个流域)和下降(14个流域)三种趋势,人类取水活动在未来水压力的变化中起决定性作用.整体上,南亚和东南亚地区水压力将持续增加,例如,布拉马普特拉河流域和湄公河流域,未来水资源短缺和水安全风险很高.
Abstract
Basins around the Asian Water Tower benefits more than one billion people in Asia and plays a vital role in global economic development.However,the water resources of the Asian Water Tower have changed dramatically under the background of climate warming.Meanwhile,the water demand of human activities is in-creasing rapidly.For all that,changes in supply and demand side make the water stress risk more prominent.In order to understand the Current situation and future changes of water stress in basins of the Asian Water Tower,here based on the runoff and water withdrawal data of the global hydrological model in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISIMIP),the research establishes an index to evaluate the water stress status and possible future changes in 21 basins around the Asian Water Tower.We conclude that the water stress of the 21 basins of the Asian Water Tower showed an overall upward trend during 1971-2010.Especially,the basins with high or above average water stress levels,including Indus,Tarim and Huanghe.In the future scenario,the change of water stress in the 21 basins of the Asian Water Tower will initially increase,and then different basins will show three trends under different scenarios,involving continuous increase(2 basins),stabilization(5 ba-sins)and decline(14 basins).Human activities of water withdrawal play a crucial part in the change of future water stress.Among them,the basins in South Asia and Southeast Asia with increasing water stress,such as Brahmaputra and Mekong,water scarcity and security of them pose a significant risk in the future.
关键词
"亚洲水塔"/水资源压力/气候变化/未来预估Key words
Asian Water Tower/water stress/climate change/future prediction引用本文复制引用
基金项目
青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(第二次)(2019QZKK020805)
中国科学院国际合作局国际伙伴计划中澳(CAS-CSIRO)国际合作项目(131B62KYSB20190042)
国家自然科学基金(41971083)
甘肃省自然科学基金(23JRRA583)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据