Current situation and future prediction of water stress in basins around the Asian Water Tower under the background of global warming
Basins around the Asian Water Tower benefits more than one billion people in Asia and plays a vital role in global economic development.However,the water resources of the Asian Water Tower have changed dramatically under the background of climate warming.Meanwhile,the water demand of human activities is in-creasing rapidly.For all that,changes in supply and demand side make the water stress risk more prominent.In order to understand the Current situation and future changes of water stress in basins of the Asian Water Tower,here based on the runoff and water withdrawal data of the global hydrological model in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISIMIP),the research establishes an index to evaluate the water stress status and possible future changes in 21 basins around the Asian Water Tower.We conclude that the water stress of the 21 basins of the Asian Water Tower showed an overall upward trend during 1971-2010.Especially,the basins with high or above average water stress levels,including Indus,Tarim and Huanghe.In the future scenario,the change of water stress in the 21 basins of the Asian Water Tower will initially increase,and then different basins will show three trends under different scenarios,involving continuous increase(2 basins),stabilization(5 ba-sins)and decline(14 basins).Human activities of water withdrawal play a crucial part in the change of future water stress.Among them,the basins in South Asia and Southeast Asia with increasing water stress,such as Brahmaputra and Mekong,water scarcity and security of them pose a significant risk in the future.
Asian Water Towerwater stressclimate changefuture prediction
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