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中国降水再循环率对全球变暖的响应

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中国地域广阔,涵盖了多种气候类型和地形特征,这为降水再循环过程提供了复杂的环境条件,使得在研究降水再循环率特征时难以对区域进行划分和比较。本文利用优化后的降水再循环率评估模型计算中国地区降水再循环率,研究了中国地区降水再循环率的变化特征及其对全球变暖的响应。结果表明,1979-2020年,中国降水再循环率具有明显的区域和季节性差异,其中青藏高原的再循环率最高,降水再循环率的大值区和线性增长的区域主要位于非季风区的内陆湿润地区;但在干旱半干旱的西北地区东部,降水再循环率整体偏低的情况下,其线性趋势增加非常显著。通过经验正交函数(EOF)分解的结果发现,降水再循环率的第一模态在2000年之前以负位相为主,而2000年之后以正位相为主,且从九年滑动平均来看降水再循环率呈先增加再减少的趋势。本研究依据降水再循环率的大小和气候倾向率的正负,将中国分出四类降水再循环率区域:降水再循环率较大且呈上升趋势(Ⅰ类),降水再循环率较大且呈下降趋势(Ⅱ类),降水再循环率较小且呈上升趋势(Ⅲ类),降水再循环率较小且呈下降趋势(Ⅳ类),并在四类区域中筛选出八个典型区域来研究降水再循环率对全球变暖的响应。在Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类区域的典型区域中的降水主要受到本地蒸发的影响,在Ⅲ类和Ⅳ类区域的典型区域中,降水与外来水汽输送之间的关系更为密切。在同一类型区域中内外循环各变量对全球变暖的响应值不同,蒸发量和水汽通量散度的变化会影响降水平流贡献和局地蒸发贡献对全球变暖的响应强弱。研究中国不同类型区域内外循环变量对全球变暖响应差异,有助于深化对气候变化影响的认识,为制定相应的气候适应策略提供科学依据。
Response of precipitation recycle ratio(PRR)to global warming in China
The vast territory of China covers a diverse range of climate types and topographical features,provid-ing intricate environmental conditions for the precipitation recycling process.This diversity presents challenges in categorizing and comparing different regions when analyzing the characteristics of precipitation recycle ratio.This study employs an optimized precipitation recycle ratio evaluation model to calculate the precipitation recy-cle ratio in China and investigates its variation characteristics and response to global warming.The findings re-veal that from 1979 to 2020,China experienced notable regional and seasonal differences in precipitation recycle ratios,with the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau exhibiting the highest value.Regions with high values and increase of precipitation recycle ratio were mainly located in the inland humid areas of non-monsoon regions;However,in the arid and semi-arid eastern part of Northwest China,despite a generally lower precipitation recycle ratio,there was a significant upward linear trend.The empirical orthogonal function(EOF)results indicate that the first mode of precipitation recycle ratio is dominated by a negative phase before 2000,shifting to a positive phase afterward.A nine-year moving average of the precipitation recycle ratio suggests an initial increase fol-lowed by a decline.This study categorizes China into four precipitation recycle ratio regions based on the magni-tude of precipitation recycle ratio and its positive or negative climate tendency rate:the precipitation recycle ratio is relatively high and shows an upward trend(Class Ⅰ),the precipitation recycle ratio is relatively high and shows a downward trend(Class Ⅱ),the precipitation recycle ratio is relatively low and shows an upward trend(Class Ⅲ),and the precipitation recycle ratio is relatively low and shows a downward trend(Class Ⅳ).Eight representative regions were selected from the four regions to study the response of precipitation recycle ratio to global warming.In Class Ⅰ and Class Ⅱ,precipitation is mainly affected by local evaporation,while in Class Ⅲ and Class Ⅳ,the relationship between precipitation and external water vapor transport is closer.Within the same class,the response values of internal and external circulation variables to global warming are different.Changes in evaporation and water vapor flux divergence will affect the response strength of the contribution of low-level flow and local evaporation to global warming.Studying the distinct responses of internal and external cyclic variables to global warming across different regions in China can enhance our understanding of climate change impacts and provide a scientific basis for formulating corresponding climate adaptation strategies.

precipitationprecipitation recycle ratio(PRR)global warmingtypical region

黄必城、雍佳桦、吴丹、吴永萍、封国林、孙桂全

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扬州大学 物理科学与技术学院,江苏 扬州 225002

国家气候中心,北京 100081

中北大学 数学学院,山西 太原 038507

降水 降水再循环率(PRR) 全球变暖 典型区域

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金

422750294213061042275034

2024

冰川冻土
中国地理学会 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

冰川冻土

CSTPCD
影响因子:2.546
ISSN:1000-0240
年,卷(期):2024.46(1)
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