基于DSR理论-综合云理论的中俄冻土区管道保温层效果失效类型研究
Study on the type of failure of the effect of pipeline insulation measures in the permafrost regions of China and Russia based on the Driving force-State-Response theory integrated cloud theory
朱美全 1金晓颖 2车富强 3王宏伟 4王文辉 1周刚义 3李国玉 5李新宇 6何瑞霞 5杨如轩 1唐建军 1李善珍 1张泽 2金会军7
作者信息
- 1. 东北林业大学 土木工程学院/冻土研究所,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040
- 2. 东北林业大学 土木工程学院/冻土研究所,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040;东北林业大学 寒区科学与工程研究院/教育部东北冻土地质系统与环境观测试验研究站,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040
- 3. 自然资源部 国家林业和草原局 重点国有林区森林资源监测中心,黑龙江 加格达奇 165100
- 4. 东北林业大学 土木工程学院/冻土研究所,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040;中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 甘肃省遥感重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000;中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
- 5. 中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
- 6. 哈尔滨工业大学 土木工程学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150090
- 7. 东北林业大学 土木工程学院/冻土研究所,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040;东北林业大学 寒区科学与工程研究院/教育部东北冻土地质系统与环境观测试验研究站,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040;中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
- 折叠
摘要
冻土区管道保温层效果与评价指标变化的随机性密切相关,以往冻土区管道保温层效果评价模型存在一定的局限性与不足.为了提升冻土区管道保温层效果模型的应用效果,本文基于驱动力-状态-响应(Driving force-State-Response,DSR)理论、综合云理论和迭代运算方法相结合的综合评价方法,构建适用于中俄冻土区管道保温层效果的评价模型.为了验证冻土区管道保温层效果评价模型的科学性,以中俄管道沿线(漠河—大庆段)四处典型监测区域MDX007、MDX113、MDX304和MDX364为实例,应用评价模型对管道保温层效果的失效类型和失效可能性概率进行了综合分析.结果表明:运用评价模型可以科学指导中俄原油管道保温层效果的评估,并依据相应的保温层效果失效类型结果给出对应的措施建议.综合云模型能够结合不同理论模型的优势,保证冻土工程环境评价的科学性,通过置信度值验证,具有良好的应用前景.研究成果可为中俄原油管线安全稳定运营提供战略性的科学支撑.
Abstract
The effect of pipeline insulation layer in permafrost area is closely related to the randomness of evalua-tion index changes,and the previous evaluation model of pipeline insulation layer effect in permafrost area has certain limitations and shortcomings.In order to improve the application effectiveness of insulation measures for pipelines in permafrost regions,based on the comprehensive evaluation method and combining the Driving force-State-Response(DSR)model theory,coefficient of variation weight theory and cloud model theory,in this pa-per a suitable comprehensive cloud model has been built for the evaluation of the thermal effect of insulated pipe-lines in permafrost regions.The DSR framework is used in the developed model to ensure the reliability of the in-dex system.The weight of the index calculated by the coefficient of variation method ensures objectivity;the cloud model solves the randomness problem that cannot reflect the standard classification and index data acquisi-tion of the environmental evaluation process of pipelines in permafrost regions.In order to validate the evalua-tion model of insulating effects for buried oil pipelines in permafrost regions,three representative monitoring sites at Kilometerage Posts MDX007,MDX113,MDX304 and MDX364 along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines(Mo'he-Daqing Line or MDX)are taken as examples.The comprehensive cloud model is used for evaluating the thermal effect of pipeline insulation measures.The results show that the comprehensive model-based analysis can effectively guide the implementation plan of insulation measures for Russian-Chinese Crude Oil Pipelines,and give corresponding measure suggestions based on the corresponding insulation effect failure types.Based on the evaluation results,the implementation plan of insulation measures for the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines is analyzed and advised for optimizing the thermal effect of insulative measures.The com-prehensive cloud model can combine the advantages of different theoretical models to take into full account of the effectiveness and soundness of the comprehensive analysis of cold regions engineering environment evalua-tion,with a promising application potential.The research results can provide strategic scientific support for the safe and stable operation and sustainable development of China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines.
关键词
冻土区管道/保温措施热效果/驱动力-状态-响应(DSR)模型/综合评价云模型Key words
buried pipelines in permafrost regions/thermal effects of insulation measures/Driving force-State-Response(DSR)model/comprehensive cloud model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42101119)
国家自然科学基金项目(U20A2082)
国家自然科学基金项目(41871052)
科技基础资源调查专项(2022FY100703)
冻土工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLFSE201913)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据