The discharge change in the source region of the Yellow River in the next 40 years based on the CMIP6 and two hydrological models
The climate change in the source region of the Yellow River Basin was projected from 2121 to 2060 using eight GCMS of the Coupled model inter-comparision project Phase 6(CMIP6)and two shared socio-eco-nomic low-carbon paths(SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5).The inter-decadal variation of discharge in the source re-gion of the Yellow River from 2021 to 2060 was predicted by using eight GCMs climate models to drive HBV and SWAT hydrological models.The results show that:(1)In comparison with the baseline period(1995-2014),in terms of the ensemble mean,annual mean air temperature,annual precipitation will increase by 1.3℃and 1.6℃,by 11.6%and 11.5%under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios,respectively.And the warming and wetting trends become obvious from 2021-2060 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios in the source region of the Yellow River.(2)The multi-models ensemble mean(MEM)multi-year mean annual discharge for 2021-2060 was expected to increase by 8.6%and 8.5%under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and the SSP2-4.5 scenario,respectively.It was projected to increase in each decade from the 2020s to the 2050s under the scenario of SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.The increase degree in 2040s and 2050s is higher than 2020s and 2030s.(3)The proportion of discharge was projected to decrease by 0.1%～1.0%from May to August during 2021-2060 under both scenarios but was projected to increase by 0.1%～2.1%from April to May and Septem-ber to December for most GCMS under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and the SSP2-4.5 scenario,respectively.(4)Ex-tremely high monthly discharge was expected to increase by 2.5%～2.7%in the water storage season under two scenarios during 2021-2060 in the source region of the Yellow River whereas the extreme high discharge in the flood season increased by 0.1%under the SSP1-2.6 scenarios but decreased by 1.3%under the SSP2-4.5 sce-narios,and decreased by 0.7%～1.0%in dry season under two scenarios in the next 40 years.Extremely low dis-charge was projected to increase by 0.8%～1.9%in the flood season and the dry season but to decrease by 1.8%～2.3%in the storage season under two scenarios in the study region.
climate change impactdischarge projectionSWAT and HBV modelCMIP6 modelsthe source region of Yellow River
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万方数据
