The climate change in the source region of the Yellow River Basin was projected from 2121 to 2060 using eight GCMS of the Coupled model inter-comparision project Phase 6(CMIP6)and two shared socio-eco-nomic low-carbon paths(SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5).The inter-decadal variation of discharge in the source re-gion of the Yellow River from 2021 to 2060 was predicted by using eight GCMs climate models to drive HBV and SWAT hydrological models.The results show that:(1)In comparison with the baseline period(1995-2014),in terms of the ensemble mean,annual mean air temperature,annual precipitation will increase by 1.3℃and 1.6℃,by 11.6%and 11.5%under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios,respectively.And the warming and wetting trends become obvious from 2021-2060 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios in the source region of the Yellow River.(2)The multi-models ensemble mean(MEM)multi-year mean annual discharge for 2021-2060 was expected to increase by 8.6%and 8.5%under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and the SSP2-4.5 scenario,respectively.It was projected to increase in each decade from the 2020s to the 2050s under the scenario of SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.The increase degree in 2040s and 2050s is higher than 2020s and 2030s.(3)The proportion of discharge was projected to decrease by 0.1%～1.0%from May to August during 2021-2060 under both scenarios but was projected to increase by 0.1%～2.1%from April to May and Septem-ber to December for most GCMS under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and the SSP2-4.5 scenario,respectively.(4)Ex-tremely high monthly discharge was expected to increase by 2.5%～2.7%in the water storage season under two scenarios during 2021-2060 in the source region of the Yellow River whereas the extreme high discharge in the flood season increased by 0.1%under the SSP1-2.6 scenarios but decreased by 1.3%under the SSP2-4.5 sce-narios,and decreased by 0.7%～1.0%in dry season under two scenarios in the next 40 years.Extremely low dis-charge was projected to increase by 0.8%～1.9%in the flood season and the dry season but to decrease by 1.8%～2.3%in the storage season under two scenarios in the study region.
climate change impactdischarge projectionSWAT and HBV modelCMIP6 modelsthe source region of Yellow River
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万方数据
