Simulation of future distribution of dominant species of tundra vegetation in Alaska
The Arctic region is recognized as one of the most climate-sensitive areas,with tundra ecosystems playing a vital role within the Arctic ecosystem. This study employed the ecological niche model named Max-Ent. Utilizing species occurrence data and environmental information,we modeled the current (1970—2000) potential distributions of six dominant tundra species in Alaska and projected their changes under different scenar-ios (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2021—2040. The primary factors deter-mining species distribution were identified based on their contribution rates. The results indicate that temperature is the most important environmental factor affecting species distribution,with spatial heterogeneity observed in the changes in suitable habitats for dominant species. Compared to the current climate,the dominant shrub spe-cies,Arctous alpina,have shown a decrease in their distribution area. In contrast,the dominant lichen species,Cladina rangiferina,and the dominant sedge species,Eriophorum vaginatum,have exhibited an overall in-crease in their distribution areas. Under the low radiative forcing scenario (SSP1-2.6),the suitable habitat areas for Arctous alpina and the creeping dwarf shrub species,such as Dryas integrifolia,have expanded. However,in scenarios with medium,medium-high,and high radiative forcing,which exacerbate global warming,the suit-able habitat areas have decreased. Regarding the semi-creeping dwarf shrub species,including Cassiope tetrago-na,and the dominant moss species,Hylocomium splendens,their suitable habitat areas displayed irregular changes across different climate scenarios. However,it was consistently observed that the low-suitability habitat areas decreased,with a tendency to shift towards moderate to high-suitability regions. Simultaneously,domi-nant species are shifting towards higher latitudes and elevations.
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