Influence of human activities on temperature extremes in the warmest summer over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
The warming of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has led to glacier retreat,permafrost melting,and an in-crease of meteorological and derived disasters,capturing widespread attention across society.In recent years,the warming of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has intensified further.In 2022,the summer was the warmest since 1961,with the average summer maximum temperature(Tmax)and minimum temperature(Tmin)in the central and eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau being 2.37 ℃ and 2.51 ℃ higher than that during the period of 1961-1990.The attribution technique,combining model evaluation and reconstruction,was employed to detect and analyze the anthropogenic influence on the extreme temperature events of the summer 2022 over the Qinghai-Xizang Pla-teau,utilizing CMIP6 model simulation data.The results indicated that greenhouse gases emissions from human activities significantly heightened the probability of maximum temperature extreme events during the summer 2022 over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The probability of extreme Tmax events occurring with and without the in-fluence of human activities was 3.67％and 0.012％,respectively.The contribution of human activities to ex-treme Tmax events in summer 2022 was estimated to be 1.26 ℃(90％CI:0.86～1.68 ℃).The probability of ex-treme Tmin events occurring with and without human activities is 23.5％and 0,respectively.The contribution of human activities to extreme Tmin events in summer 2022 was estimated to be 2.35 ℃(90％CI:1.89～2.81 ℃).The CMIP6 model underestimated the observed temperature changes over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The simu-lation deviation of the model is calibrated based on the attribution constraint method,and the projected summer maximum and minimum temperature over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau are expected to continue to increase in the future under the medium emission SSP2-4.5 scenario of shared socioeconomic path.The risk of extreme Tmax and Tmin events similar to those in 2022 occurring on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in the future is increasing.
万方数据
维普
