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京津冀土地利用变化及驱动力分析

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土地利用变化及其驱动力研究,对于科学规划和利用土地资源十分重要.分析京津冀2005-2022年期间土地利用变化特征,并通过方差分解方法,探究土地利用变化的驱动因素.2005-2022年间,京津冀土地利用整体变化特征为耕地、草地、水面、裸地、灌木林地面积减少,林地和建设用地面积增加.不同时期的土地利用分析没有显示出较大的变化差异.四个指标对土地利用变化的解释率均高于60%.方差分解结果显示,总人口数对土地利用变化的影响最大,其次为年均温,二者均为驱动京津冀土地利用变化的主要因素.
Analysis of Land Use Changes and Driving Forces in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
The study of land use change and its driving forces is crucial for scientific planning and utilization of land resources.This article analyzes the characteristics of land use change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2022;and through the variance decomposition method,the driving factors of land use change were explored.From 2005 to 2022,the overall changes in land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were characterized by a decrease in the area of cultivated land,grassland,water surface,bare land,and shrubland land,while an increase in the area of forest land and construction land.The analysis of land use in different periods did not show significant differences in changes.The explanatory rates of the four indicators for land use change are all above 60%.The variance decomposition results show that the total population has the greatest impact on land use change,followed by annual average temperature,which is the main factor driving land use change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regionland usedriving force

周丽娜、刘娜、刘益梦

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保定学院地理与旅游学院,河北 保定 071000

保定学院河北省土传病害绿色防控技术创新中心,河北保定 071000

京津冀 土地利用 驱动力

2025

保定学院学报
保定学院

保定学院学报

影响因子:0.289
ISSN:1674-2494
年,卷(期):2025.38(1)