北方经贸2024,Issue(10) :55-62.

"RCEP"国家风险测度分析

"RCEP" Country Risk Measurement Analyses

聂晓婷 陈伟
北方经贸2024,Issue(10) :55-62.

"RCEP"国家风险测度分析

"RCEP" Country Risk Measurement Analyses

聂晓婷 1陈伟1
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作者信息

  • 1. 广东海洋大学管理学院,广东湛江 524088
  • 折叠

摘要

在后疫情背景下,一些国家地缘政治风险激增,贸易保护主义抬头,外资进入门槛不断提高,投资环境存在差异,这将增加中国企业对RCEP区域国家直接投资的潜在风险.因此,准确判断不同国家的投资风险及其在不同时期的动态变化,对于中国企业在RCEP区域国家进行直接投资的选择具有重要参考价值.本文采用主成分分析法,选取了 2013-2021年间RCEP区域国家的政治、经济、金融、社会文化和对华关系风险的31个二级指标,对RCEP区域国家的国家风险进行测度.研究结果显示,风险最低的是新加坡,最高的是缅甸.近年来,澳大利亚超越日本,成为对华关系风险最高的国家.

Abstract

In the post epidemic context,geopolitical risks have surged in some countries,trade protectionism has risen,the entry threshold for foreign investment has been rising,and there are differences in investment environments,which will increase the potential risks of Chinese enterprises'direct investment in the countries in the RCEP region.Therefore,accurately judging the investment risks of different countries and their dynamic changes in different periods is of great reference value for Chinese enterprises to make direct investment choices in RCEP region countries.This paper adopts the principal component analysis method and selects 31 secondary indicators of political,economic,financial,socio-cultural and China relations risks of RCEP countries during 2013-2021 to measure the country risks of RCEP countries.The findings show that the lowest risk is Singapore and the highest is Myanmar.In recent years,Australia has overtaken Japan as the country with the highest risk in its relations with China.

关键词

RCEP/国家风险/直接投资

Key words

RCEP/Country risk/Direct investment

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出版年

2024
北方经贸
黑龙江省经济委员会 黑龙江省经济管理干部学院

北方经贸

影响因子:0.24
ISSN:1005-913X
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