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基于LDSCR-at-Risk的PPP项目可融资性评价

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通过分析传统的偿债备付率适用性及政府和社会资本合作(PPP)项目的特点,认为传统的偿债备付率不适合于PPP项目可融资性评价.因此,为了评价中长期债务的可融资性,提出了"平准化偿债备付率"(LDSCR),即在借款偿还期内,各年可用于还本付息的资金折现到起始点的现值与贷款金额的比值;进一步提出"风险下的平准化偿债备付率"(LDSCR-at-Risk),即在给定的置信度下的平准化偿债备付率.运用蒙特卡洛仿真进行验证,结果表明:LDSCR-at-Risk可用于PPP项目的可融资性评价,且在可以评价具有风险的PPP项目可融资性的同时,还避免了如何确定项目的最低偿债备付率的问题,从而促进PPP项目融资的发展.
Assessment on Bankability of PPP Projects Based on LDSCR-at-Risk
Based on analysing the applicability of the debt service coverage ratios (DSCR) and the charac-teristics of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects,this paper argues that DSCR is not applicable for evaluating the bankability of PPP projects. In order to evaluate the bankability of medium-or long-term debts,the "Levelized Debt Service Coverage Ratio" (LDSCR) was proposed,which was defined as the ratio of the present value of the funds available for principal and interest repayment in each year during the loan repayment period to the debt. Furthermore,"Levelized Debt Service Coverage Ratio under Risk" (LDSCR at Risk) was proposed,that is,the levelized debt service coverage ratio under a given confi-dence level. By using Monte Carlo simulation,it was demonstrated that LDSCR-at-Risk can evaluate the bankability of PPP projects,and can be applied to evaluate the bankability of PPP projects with risks while avoiding the determination of minimum LDBSR,thereby promoting the development of PPP project fi-nancing.

PPP (Public-Private Partnership)bankabilityLevelized Debt Service Coverage RatioLDSCR-at-Risk

叶苏东

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北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京 100044

PPP 可融资性 平准化偿债备付率 LDSCR-at-Risk

国家自然科学基金资助项目

71171017

2024

北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)
北京交通大学

北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.729
ISSN:1672-8106
年,卷(期):2024.23(3)