Measuring and Estimating the Weakness of China's Total Demand:A Rebuttal to the"Overcapacity"Theory
In the context of a complex and ever-changing international situation,China's external demand has experienced significant fluctuations,impacting the stable operation of its macroeconomy.Against this backdrop,a comprehensive analysis of the weakness of China's total demand is crucial for understanding the dynamic changes in economic operations and policy responses.This article,from a demand-side perspective,estimates China's potential total demand by using a trade gravity model and assesses the external and internal demand weaknesses from 2007 to 2022 by comparing effective demand.The results indicate that:(1)after 2008,China's external demand has been persistently weak,but the effective release of domestic potential demand has compensated for this gap,hence the so-called"China's overcapacity"theory lacks a factual basis;(2)the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 weakened domestic effective demand,leading to a certain degree of overall demand weakness in China.However,with the recovery of domestic economy,the situation will be improved.Therefore,it is essential to continuously convert the potential of domestic and international markets into effective demand,focus on expanding both domestic and external effective demand by boosting consumption,driving investment,and promoting high-level opening up to the outside world.
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