Bayesian Estimation of Surface-to-Air Missile Hit Probability Based on Normal-inverse Wishart Distribution
The two-dimensional normal projectile dispersion is mainly used in the existing Bayesian estimation of missile hit probability,but the accuracy of estimation is not high enough due to the failure of considering the two-direction correlation of X and Y axes.The normal-inverse Wishart distribution is used as the prior distribution of projectile dispersion parameters,and the hit probability estimation method of surface-to-air missile is studied.Firstly,on the basis of describing the definition of miss distance of surface-to-air missile,the correlation coefficient ρ is determined by two related characteristics.Secondly,in view of the problems of high cost,little dataof the surface-to-air missile field test,and the difficulty of estimating hit probability by classical statistical methods,the Bayesian method is used to integrate the prior informationfor research.Then,based on the normal-inverse Wishart distribution,the prior information is used to solve the hyperparameters of the prior distribution,and the posterior distribution of projectile dispersion parameters are obtained by integrating the field test data with the Bayesian formula,and finally the hit probability of surface-to-air missile is estimated.The results show that,compared with the existing normal-inverse gamma distribution method,the proposed method take into account the actual situation of the projectile dispersion two-direction correlation of surface-to-air missile,and makes full use of the hit probability information,which is conducive to improving the accuracy of estimation,and provide a theoretical method for the estimation of surface-to-air missile hit probability.
万方数据
维普
