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基于时序网络仿真和贡献率的预警作战体系任务支持能力评估

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针对预警作战体系任务支持能力评估出现的网络化建模存在能力误差、任务能力缺乏动态特性以及评估结果与现实效果存在一定误差等问题,提出基于时序网络仿真和贡献率的作战体系任务支持能力评估方法。基于预警作战体系的静态网络模型,将其拓展到时序网络层面,并定义时序路径和时序效能环;根据任务层次分解将任务需求和能力进行匹配;建立时序网络和多Agent仿真的映射关系,构建贴近实际作战的仿真框架;利用贡献率的思想在蒙特卡洛仿真数据基础上分析预警作战体系的任务支持能力,将非对称高斯隶属函数表示的不确定指标和统计结果表示的精确指标用相似度权重进行集成,计算得到不同作战单元在体系中的任务支持能力。实验结果表明,所提方法有效可行,能够贴近装备实际能力,缩小与现实结果的评估误差,为体系能力评估和装备需求论证提供了技术支撑。
Mission Support Capability Assessment of Early-warning Combat System-of-systems Based on Temporal NetworkSimulation and Contribution Rate
In response to the problems of capability errors in networked modelling,lack of dynamic characteristics of mission capabilities,and certain errors between assessment results and realistic effectiveness in the assessment of mission support capabilities of early-warning combat system-of-systems ( EWCSOS),a method of assessing the mission support capability of EWCSOS based on temporal network simulation and contribution rate is presented. Firstly,based on the static network model of EWCSOS,it is extended to the temporal combat network,and the time-series path and temporal effectiveness loop are defined. Secondly,the mission requirements and capabilities are matched according to the mission hierarchical decomposition,and then the mapping relation between the temporal network and multi-Agent simulation is established to build a simulation framework which is close to actual operations. Finally,the mission support capability of different combat units in EWCSOS is calculated by using the idea of contribution ratio to analyze the mission support capability of early-warning combat system-of-systems based on simulation data and integrating the uncertain indicators represented by asymmetric Gaussian affiliation functions and precise indicators represented by statistical results with similarity weights. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method is efficient and close to the actual capability of the equipment,and can reduce the evaluation error with realistic results,which provides technical support for the system capability assessment and equipment requirement justification.

temporal networktemporal effectiveness loopearly-warning combat system-of-systemsMonte Carlo simulationmission support capability

俞锦涛、肖兵、崔玉竹、亓冬、严韬

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空军预警学院 信息对抗系,湖北 武汉430019

空军预警学院 预警情报系,湖北 武汉430019

之江实验室,浙江 杭州311121

武警士官学校,浙江 杭州310030

空军预警学院 空天预警系,湖北 武汉430019

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时序网络 时序效能环 预警作战体系 蒙特卡洛仿真 任务支持能力

国家自然科学基金

61502522

2024

兵工学报
中国兵工学会

兵工学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.735
ISSN:1000-1093
年,卷(期):2024.45(4)
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