The confidential interval of explosive shock Hugoniot parameters is exactly assessed and the uncertainties associated with shock ignition and equation of state are efficiently quantified to improve the robustness and reliability of the model and enormously reduce the calibration cost of detonation pressure.The linear regression method is utilized to calibrate the shock Hugoniot parameters, and the confidential interval of Hugoniot parameters are also deduced from parameter estimation. Moreover, the availability of Hugoniot model is validated through domestic experiment data. On the basis of reasonable assumptions,Chapman-Jouguet theory and shock Hugoniot relationship are combined to the functional relationships among detonation pressure. sample thickness, shock passing time, initial density, Hugoniot slope and 0-presure sound speed are deduced. The input uncertainty is characterized by log-normal distribution and Beta distribution, and it is transformed into independent standard normal random variables by Rosenblatt transformation. Polynomial chaos with basis adaptation is applied to implement uncertainty propagation, and the probability density function and confidential interval of detonation pressure is obtained. The results show that the detonation pressure satisfies the quasi-monotonicity with respect to sample thickness, passing time and detonation speed. The assertion of previous studies is confirmed in specific conditions. The confidence interval is much wider when it is used in PBX9502 , which coincides with the prior judgment given by experimental expert. This study develops an efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation method. The result can provide technique support for developing highly predictable and confidential software.
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