滑坡位移预测模型补充评价方法
Supplemental Evaluation of Landslide Displacement Prediction Models
田原 1常啸寅 1赵文祎 2程楚云 1Bronte Scheuer 1邓杨兰朵 1马睿平 1张建学1
作者信息
- 1. 北京大学遥感与地理信息系统研究所,北京 100871;空间信息集成与 3S工程应用北京市重点实验室,北京 100871
- 2. 中国地质环境监测院,北京 100081
- 折叠
摘要
针对目前滑坡位移预测模型评价方法中总体性指标区分能力不足,以及对滑坡高风险期预测效果评价不准确等问题,设计滑坡位移预测模型快速位移期综合误差(CERDP)和峰值预测误差(PPE)两个补充评价指标以及对应的补充评价技术流程.基于滑坡监测数据的实例研究表明,所提补充评价指标和应用流程合理可行,可以有效地应对均方根误差(RMSE)等指标差异不显著带来的评价不准确问题,遴选出总体性能可靠,在风险时段和最高风险时点表现更好的模型,为滑坡风险管理工作提供有效的技术支持.
Abstract
The distinguishing ability of typical overall indicators is becoming increasingly insufficient in the evaluation tasks of landslide displacement prediction models while the predicting ability of the models in the high-risk deformation periods has unexpectedly not been paid enough attention.Therefore,two supplemental evaluation indicators for landslide displacement prediction models,combined error of rapid displacement period(CERDP)and peak prediction error(PPE),along with their application process,are accordingly designed.To verify the feasibility and performance of the proposed supplemental evaluation indicators,a case study based on actual landslide monitoring data has been carried out.It can be concluded that the proposed supplemental evaluation indicators and application process are reasonable,feasible,and practical for effectively addressing the evaluation issues caused by insignificant differences in indicators,such as root mean squared error(RMSE),and are able to finally select an overall reliable model which performs best during rapid displacement periods and around peak deformation times,thus providing effective technical support for landslide risk management tasks.
关键词
滑坡位移预测模型/评价指标/补充评价/快速位移期/位移峰值Key words
landslide displacement prediction model/evaluation indicators/supplemental evaluation/rapid dis-placement period/peak displacement引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国地调局地质调查项目(DD20211364)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据