北京大学学报(自然科学版)2024,Vol.60Issue(6) :1094-1106.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2024.023

新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下世界玉米海运格局变化研究

Changes in World Corn Shipping Pattern under the Background of COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine Conflict

赵鹏军 尹昭有 张梦竹 牛樱楠 何张源
北京大学学报(自然科学版)2024,Vol.60Issue(6) :1094-1106.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2024.023

新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下世界玉米海运格局变化研究

Changes in World Corn Shipping Pattern under the Background of COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine Conflict

赵鹏军 1尹昭有 2张梦竹 3牛樱楠 3何张源3
扫码查看

作者信息

  • 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871;北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,深圳 518055
  • 2. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871
  • 3. 北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,深圳 518055
  • 折叠

摘要

采用 2019,2021和 2022年的国际玉米贸易数据,通过矩阵构建和算法设计进行数据映射,探究新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下全球玉米海运格局的变化,得到以下结果.1)泛地中海、西北太平洋近岸海域和加勒比海海域是世界玉米航运的 3个核心.2)疫情和俄乌冲突对世界玉米航运结构的影响有限,局域变动大于整体变动,冲突对世界玉米航运格局的影响集中在泛地中海地区.玉米航运格局演化量变仍在持续积累.3)疫情和俄乌冲突都对航道玉米运量和运价产生双重效应,俄乌冲突干扰了疫情缓和后世界玉米航运的反弹.考虑到全球航运玉米单价上涨,黑海相关航道经济价值下降明显,南美经好望角至东亚、东南亚的大洋航道等经济价值增长态势良好.4)泛地中海海域航道具有高度的综合价值;虽然非洲大陆西侧岸线等航道的经济价值较低,但具有较高的国际服务价值.

Abstract

Using international corn trade data in 2019,2021,and 2022,through matrix construction and algorithm design for data mapping,this paper explores the changes of the global corn shipping pattern under the background of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine Conflict.It is found that the Pan-Mediterranean Sea,the northwest Pacific coast area and the Caribbean Sea are the three cores of the world's corn shipping.The epidemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have a limited impact on the world corn shipping structure,and local changes are greater than the overall changes.The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the world corn shipping pattern is concentrated in the Pan-Mediterranean region.The quantitative changes in the evolution of corn shipping pattern are still accumulating.Both the epidemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have a dual effect in the volume of corn and freight rates.The Russia-Ukraine conflict interfers with the rebound of corn shipping in the world's waterways after the easing of the epidemic.Considering the rising unit price of global shipping corn,the economic value of the Black Sea-related waterway has decreased significantly,and the economic value of waterway from South America around the Cape of Good Hope to East Asia and Southeast Asia shows a positive growth trend.The Pan-Mediterranean waterway is of highly comprehensive value.The western coastline of the African continent has low economic value but high international service value.

关键词

玉米海运/俄乌冲突/新冠疫情/粮食安全

Key words

corn shipping/Russia-Ukraine conflict/COVID-19 pandemic/food security

引用本文复制引用

出版年

2024
北京大学学报(自然科学版)
北京大学

北京大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.785
ISSN:0479-8023
段落导航相关论文