基于STIRPAT的河北省碳达峰预测研究
Prediction of the carbon peak for Hebei Province based on STIRPAT
辛春林 1赵佳炜 2杨建亮2
作者信息
- 1. 北京化工大学 经济管理学院,北京 100029;北京化工大学 中国工业碳中和研究院,北京 100029
- 2. 北京化工大学 经济管理学院,北京 100029
- 折叠
摘要
我国已宣布力争2030 年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值,为确保河北省能够保质保量完成碳达峰目标,采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)排放因子法测算河北省 2005-2021 年化石能源消费碳排放量,选取人口、人均GDP、城镇化率、产业结构、能源强度和能源结构 6 个因素,构建了河北省碳排放人口、财富和技术影响(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology,STIR-PAT)预测模型,通过构建河北省碳排放情景,对河北2022-2040 年碳排放量进行了预测.结果表明在基准情景和经济发展情景下,河北省碳排放趋势是持续上升的,未出现达峰点;产业转型、绿色发展和目标导向情景下出现了峰值点,其中目标导向情景在2029 年达峰,绿色发展情景在2030 年达峰,碳达峰量分别为81 626.658 万吨二氧化碳和86018.255 万吨二氧化碳,产业转型情景在2035 年达峰,碳达峰量为85214.349 万吨二氧化碳.按照目前情景发展下河北省难以在2030 年实现碳达峰,为保质保量完成达峰目标,需要以能源绿色低碳发展为关键手段,同时以科技和制度创新为动力,调整优化产业结构和能源结构.
Abstract
China has declared it will strive to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030.To ensure that He-bei Province can achieve peak carbon in 2030,we have used the IPCC emission factor method to calculate the car-bon emissions from fossil energy consumption in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2021.We selected six factors,name-ly population,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure to build a STIRPAT prediction model for carbon emissions in Hebei Province,and forecasted the carbon emissions in Hebei Province from 2022 to 2040 by building a carbon emission scenario.The results showed that under the base-line and economic development scenarios,there will be a continuous increase in carbon emissions in Hebei Prov-ince with no peak point.Howere,there were peak points for the scenarios of industrial transformation,green devel-opment and goal orientation,among which the goal-oriented scenario will reach its peak in 2029,and the green de-velopment scenario will reach its peak in 2030,with peak carbon emissions of 8.162 665 8×108 tons and 8.601 825 5×108 tons respectively.Under the industrial transformation scenario,the peak will be reached in 2035,with the peak carbon emissions of 8.5214349×108 tons.According to the current scenario,it will be diffi-cult for Hebei Province to reach peak carbon in 2030.In order to achieve the goal of reaching the peak with quality and quantity guaranteed,it will be necessary to adjust and optimize the industrial and energy structures with the de-velopment of green and low-carbon energy as the key measure and technological and institutional innovation as the driving force.
关键词
碳达峰/IPCC排放因子法/STIRPAT预测模型/情景构建Key words
carbon emission peak/IPCC emission factor method/STIRPAT prediction model/scene-structuring引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1906102)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据