Methodological Exploration of "Back to the Future of Education:Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling ":Scenarios as the Thinking Tool for Future Education
"Back to the Future of Education" is a forward-looking report released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),aimed at envisioning the future of education development towards 2040. Current studies have focused on descriptive and critical analyses of its "four scenarios",lacking underlying logical reflections. From the perspective of futures studies,this research analyzes the shift in future perspectives and methodologies in the report. The study found that:Frist,western views on future education is beyond determinism and agnosticism,and turn towards the paradigm of prospective research;Second,the scenario analysis method used in the report is a classic tool of such paradigm which aimed not at depicting static future school scenarios but at using "future scenarios" as a possibility for dialogue and thinking tool towards future. Therefore,to deeply understand this report requires a shift of epistemological paradigms,and further interpret the design logic behind the "four scenarios",analyzing the underlying driving forces,the systematic thinking of model construction,and inherent potential risks and issues. Only through this can we truly understand the significance of this report.
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