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新兴领域军民两用技术转移机制、趋势与障碍因子研究

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新兴领域军民两用技术的高效转移是形成新域新质作战力量的关键驱动力.通过提炼新兴领域军民两用技术转移的内涵和形成机制,以 2015-2021 年间 145 家新兴领域军民融合企业作为研究样本,采用退火算法优化投影寻踪模型及高斯核密度估计分析其演化趋势,通过ICTM分析框架诊断其障碍因子.结果表明:新兴领域军民两用技术的转移通过双螺旋耦合机制和相对技术势差流向机制得以实现;新兴领域技术转移水平呈现上升趋势,存在能力跃迁现象,但不同战区间转移水平差距逐渐扩大,形成明显的"梯型效应".研究还发现,新兴领域技术转移意愿、军民融合理念、技术要素流动性、保密机制和中介能力是影响新兴领域军民两用技术转移的关键障碍因子.本研究结果丰富了技术转移相关理论,为新兴领域军民融合发展提供参考价值.
Research on Mechanisms,Trends,and Impediments to Civil-military Technology Transfer in Emerging Fields
The efficient transfer of dual-use technology in emerging fields is a critical driving force in forming new domain operational capabilities.This paper distilled the essence and formation mechanisms of dual-use technology transfer in emerging fields,using 145 military-civil fusion enterprises from 2015-2021 as research samples.By optimizing the projection pursuit model with an annealing algorithm and analyzing the evolutionary trend through Gaussian kernel density estimation,the study further diagnoses obstacle factors using the ICTM analysis framework.Results indicate that the transfer of dual-use technology in emerging fields is realized through a double-helix coupling mechanism and a relative technology potential difference flow mechanism.The level of technology transfer in emerging fields shows an upward trend,with evidence of capability leapfrogging;however,the transfer level gaps between different zones are widening,leading to a distinct"stepped effect".The study also finds that the willingness for technology transfer,the concept of military-civil fusion in emerging fields,the fluidity of technological elements,confidentiality mechanisms,and intermediary capabilities are key obstacle factors influencing the transfer of dual-use technology in emerging fields.The findings enrich the theory of technology transfer and provide valuable insights for the development of military-civil fusion in emerging fields.

emerging fieldscivil-military technologytransfer mechanismstransfer trendinhibiting factors

田庆锋、沈伟康、李瑶、曾紫韬、方聪聪

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西北工业大学 管理学院,陕西 西安 710129

新兴领域 军民两用技术 转移机制 转移趋势 障碍因子

2025

北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)
北京理工大学

北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)

北大核心
影响因子:0.785
ISSN:1009-3370
年,卷(期):2025.27(1)