Research on Mechanisms,Trends,and Impediments to Civil-military Technology Transfer in Emerging Fields
The efficient transfer of dual-use technology in emerging fields is a critical driving force in forming new domain operational capabilities.This paper distilled the essence and formation mechanisms of dual-use technology transfer in emerging fields,using 145 military-civil fusion enterprises from 2015-2021 as research samples.By optimizing the projection pursuit model with an annealing algorithm and analyzing the evolutionary trend through Gaussian kernel density estimation,the study further diagnoses obstacle factors using the ICTM analysis framework.Results indicate that the transfer of dual-use technology in emerging fields is realized through a double-helix coupling mechanism and a relative technology potential difference flow mechanism.The level of technology transfer in emerging fields shows an upward trend,with evidence of capability leapfrogging;however,the transfer level gaps between different zones are widening,leading to a distinct"stepped effect".The study also finds that the willingness for technology transfer,the concept of military-civil fusion in emerging fields,the fluidity of technological elements,confidentiality mechanisms,and intermediary capabilities are key obstacle factors influencing the transfer of dual-use technology in emerging fields.The findings enrich the theory of technology transfer and provide valuable insights for the development of military-civil fusion in emerging fields.