Climate changes and human activities affect evolution of hydrological droughts in the upper watershed of Hutuo River
Monthly runoff data and daily meteorological data in the upper reaches of Hutuo River from 1961-2018 were subject to analysis with the ABCD hydrological model and GAMLSS model,to calculate time-varying standardized runoff index.Change point analysis,climate changes and different stages of social development were considered,with the study time domain divided into three phases:natural period(1961-1979),first impact period(1980-1997)and second impact period(1998-2018).Influence of climate changes and human activities on evolution of non-stationary hydrological drought under changing environment were quantified,based on linear rate of change of drought index with respect to time.On seasonal and annual scales of the two influence periods,trend of non-stationary hydrological drought was all alleviated.In the first impact period,climate changes and human activities mainly alleviated hydrological drought on both seasonal and annual scales,but human activities dominated contribution rate at 53.22％-89.11％.On seasonal and annual scales of the second influence period,main factor of hydrological drought mitigation was climate changes,with contributions at 50.72％-72.68％.However,hydrological drought was exacerbated by human activities,contributing from-49.27％to-27.32％.In the second influence period,drought index series caused by human activities and climate changes showed a significant negative correlation on both 3-month scale and 12-month scale.This work indicates that after entering the 21st century,people's intervention in the water cycle is more scientific and rational than in the 20th century.
万方数据
维普
