摘要
为分析我国民爆物品爆炸事故一般性规律与事故原因,对2006-2023年全国民爆物品爆炸事故的发生时间、地区分布、事故等级等维度进行事故统计与分析,使用层次分析法构建了包含人、机、环、制度4个一级指标和安全意识、技术培训、监管力度、安全教育、标准化作业、生产设备、生产工艺、天气气候、仓储条件、安全管理体制、应急管理制度共11个二级指标的层次结构模型,通过分析得到各指标权重进而对爆炸事故影响因素做出重要性排序.研究结果表明:爆炸事故发生次数逐年降低,安全形势转好,时间上集中于每年的第2、3季度,空间上以"南北高低交错"特征分布于各省份,事故等级中一般事故、较大事故占据主导地位;基于层次分析法得知一级指标中人是造成事故的最主要因素,二级指标中标准化作业、生产工艺、监管力度和安全管理体制是比较重要的几项因素,最后针对事故影响因素重要度提出了严格标准化作业、增加安全投入、加强监管力度和完善安全管理体制的预防措施.
Abstract
In order to analyze the general rules and causes of civil explosive accidents in China,statistical analy-sis was carried on the occurrence time,regional distribution,accident grade and other dimensions of nationwide civil explosive accidents from 2006 to 2023.Using analytic hierarchy process(AHP),a hierarchical structure model is constructed.It includes four first-level indicators(human,machine,environment and system)and 11 second-level in-dicators(safety awareness,technical training,supervision intensity,safety education,standardized operation,produc-tion equipment,production process,weather and climate,storage conditions,safety management system and emergen-cy management system).Through analysis,the weight of each index is obtained,and then the importance of the influ-encing factors on explosion accidents is sorted.The results show that the number of explosion accidents has decreased year by year,and the safety situation is improved.The explosion accident time is concentrated in the second and third quarters of each year,and the space distribution is across all provinces with a staggered characteristic of"North-South and high-low".Generally,the ordinary accidents and large accidents are the main accident levels.Based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),it is learned that human is the most important factor to cause the accidents in the first-level indexes.Meanwhile,the standardized operation,production process,supervision intensity and safety man-agement system are the more important factors in the second-level indexes.Finally,according to the importance of the factors affecting the accidents,preventive measures such as strict standardization of operation,increasing safety input,strengthening supervision and improving safety management system are proposed.
基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51974108)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51404093)
河南省自然科学基金项目(232300420077)
河南省博士后科研项目(001701014)
教育部产学合作协同育人项目(220901665213056)
教育部产学合作协同育人项目(201902044044)
河南省研究生教育改革与质量提升工程项目(YJS2024KC09)
河南理工大学研究生质量提升工程项目(2024YSZ03)
维普
万方数据