CMIP6气候变化情景下青海三江源区雪灵芝潜在适宜分布预测

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中文摘要：青海省三江源区是我国重要的生态安全屏障，气候变化严重影响区域植被的生长与分布。雪灵芝(Arenaria kansuensis)作为三江源区典型高山植物，其分布动态变化对高山生态系统稳定具有重要指示意义。基于物种分布数据和WorldClim气候环境因子，采用刀切法与相关分析确定影响雪灵芝分布的主导环境因子并构建MaxEnt模型，结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6，CMIP6)中的4种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)预测未来中期(2041-2060年)和远期(2061-2080年)雪灵芝潜在适宜分布区域，探求雪灵芝气候变化响应的空间格局。结果表明:1)当前气候条件下，中部地区更适合雪灵芝生存。在未来中、远期区域竞争路径(SSP370)气候情景下适宜区面积扩张，而其他情景下适宜区面积均下降，适宜区质心整体向东南迁移。2)大部分地区在中间路径(SSP245)气候情景下不适宜生存，尤其是西部治多县、格尔木市南部(唐古拉山乡)、曲麻莱县及东部的兴海县和共和县。3)影响其空间分布的主要气候因子为年降水量和最冷季降水量。最适宜生长的地区条件是年降水量500～750 mm和最冷季降水>15 mm。研究结果为预测未来气候变化情景下高寒地区指示植物物种的空间分布及其生态系统变化提供了方法参考，也为青海省濒危植物物种保护政策提供了理论依据。

外文标题：Projecting the potential suitable distributions of Arenaria kansuensis in the Three-Rivers Headwaters region, Qinghai Province, under CMIP6 climate scenarios

外文摘要：The Three-Rivers Headwaters region of Qinghai Province, China, is a critical ecological zone. Climate change seriously affects the growth and distribution of vegetation in this region. A typical alpine plant in the Three-Rivers Headwaters region, Arenaria kansuensis, demonstrates changes that will have significance for the stability of the alpine ecosystem. Based on distribution data from the literature and climate environmental factors found in WorldClim, a jackknife test method and correlation analyses were applied to determine the dominant factors affecting distribution. The MaxEnt model was calibrated to the present climate conditions of the species. A suitable distribution area was projected in the mid-term (2041–2060) and long-term (2061–2080) under four climate scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Response to climate change was explored for spatial distribution. The results indicated that 1) conditions in the central region were more suitable for the species under present climate conditions. In the medium and far term, the suitable areas will expand under the climate scenarios of SSP370 (Regional Rivalry), whereas its area will decline under the other scenarios. The center of the suitable area will move toward the southeast region. 2) Most areas will become unsuitable under the SSP245 (Middle of the Road) climate scenario, particularly in the western regions, such as Zhiduo County, South of Golmud City, Qumalai County, and the eastern regions, such as Xinghai County and Gonghe County. 3) The dominant climatic factors affecting its spatial distribution will be annual precipitation and precipitation in the coldest quarter. The most suitable area for the species will be characterized as areas with annual precipitation of 500～750 mm and precipitation in the coldest quarter of > 15 mm. The results suggest a practical methodological approach for predicting the spatial distribution of indicator plant species and resulting ecosystem changes in alpine areas under future climate change scenarios. This can provide the theoretical foundations for future conservation policies for endangered plant species in Qinghai Province.

外文关键词：

Arenaria kansuensispotential suitable areaMaxEnt modelenvironmental factorsfuture climate scenariosendangered speciesconservation biology

作者：

张秀娟、王彤新、杨妍希、张庭康、左婵、王军邦

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作者单位：

长江大学园艺园林学院,湖北荆州 434025

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101

关键词：

雪灵芝适宜区 MaxEnt模型环境未来气候情景濒危物种保护生物学

基金：

青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(第二次)中国科学院美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程战略性先导科技专项(A类)中国科学院青海省人民政府三江源国家公园联合研究专项国家自然科学基金

项目编号：

2019QZKK0302XDA23100202LHZX-2020-0731971507

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2022-0997

草业科学

中国草原学会兰州大学草地农业科技学院

草业科学

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：0.854

ISSN：1001-0629

年,卷(期)：2024.41(4)