摘要
新冠疫情爆发以来,在多艘邮轮上发生的大面积乘员感染事件暴露了现有船舶设计方法在防疫功能方面的欠缺.该文针对船舶空间内由人员流动引起的传染病感染风险,提出一种基于人员流动仿真的风险分析方法:首先对某型具备医疗功能的船舶,构建内部空间特征以及人员流动仿真模型,基于元胞自动机算法,对指定工况下的人员流动进行仿真;然后结合特定病毒株传染概率模型,获取船舶空间内各处风险等级.分析结果显示:目标船基于分区管理原则的总体布局设计,可在一定程度上控制感染传播风险,但仍需从舱室通道布置细节以及日常管理上进一步优化.文中所采用的分析方法与实例,可为船舶总布置防疫设计提供参考,同时对疫情下的船舶人员流动管理措施提供建议.
Abstract
Since the outbreak of COVID-19,a large number of passengers infected on multiple cruise ships have exposed the shortcomings of existing ship design methods in epidemic prevention functions.This paper proposes a risk analysis method based on people flow simulation to address the risk of infectious diseases caused by flow of people on board.The internal spatial characteristics and people flow simulation model of a ship with medical function are constructed in the current study.The people flow under specified operation conditions is then simulated based on the cellular automata method.The risk level of various places within the ship's space are obtained by combining with the infection probability model of a specific virus strain.The analysis results show that the overall layout design of the target ship based on the principle of zoning management can control the risk of infection transmission to a certain extent,but it is still necessary to further optimize the details of the cabin passage layout and daily management.The analysis methods and examples used in the current study can provide references for the epidemic prevention design of the general arrangement of ships and give suggestions for the management of the onboard people flow under the epidemic situation.
维普
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