内蒙古交通运输当前亟待进入高质量发展阶段，绿色、低碳、可持续交通运输体系的构建和发展是必经之路。本文利用IPCC移动源碳排放测算方法中的"自上而下"法，对交通运输能源消耗对内蒙古交通运输碳排放进行测算，并通过构建对数平均迪氏指数分解(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index，LMDI)模型对内蒙古交通运输碳排放驱动因素及其驱动效果进行定量分析，提出内蒙古交通运输低碳发展的相关建议。研究结果表明，内蒙古交通运输能源消耗产生的碳排放量总趋势是不断上升的，其间出现先增后减的波动增长阶段。能源消耗结构因素、交通运输发展水平因素对内蒙古交通运输碳排放的增长具有正向的驱动效应;能源消耗强度因素、交通运输强度因素、人口规模因素对内蒙古交通运输碳排放的增长具有负向的驱动效应。
Analysis of Driving Factors of Transport Carbon Emissions in Inner Mongolia Based on LMDI Model
The transportation in Inner Mongolia needs to enter the stage of high-quality development.The construction and development of a green,low-carbon and sustainable transportation system is the only way.By using the"top-down"method in IPCC mobile source carbon emission measurement method,the transportation carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia based on transportation energy consumption are calculated,and by conducting quantitative analysis on the driving factors and driving effects of transportation carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia on the basis of LMDI model,relevant suggestions on the development of low-carbon transportation in Inner Mongolia are put forward.The research shows that the overall trend of carbon emissions of transportation energy consumption in Inner Mongolia is rising,during which there is a fluctuating growth stage of first increasing and then decreasing.The factors of energy consumption structure and transportation development level have a positive driving effect on the growth of transportation carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia.The factors of energy consumption intensity,transportation intensity and population size have negative driving effects on the growth of transportation carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia.The research results can provide reference for the green and low-carbon sustainable development of transportation in this region.
transport carbon emissionsdriving factorsLMDI modelenergy consumptiondriving effect
万方数据
维普
