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基于STIRPAT模型的浙江省交通碳排放影响因素研究

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为掌握浙江省交通运输碳排放总量变化趋势及主要作用因素,本文基于IPCC碳排放测算法核算了2010年至2020年浙江省交通运输(不含航空)碳排放量变化趋势,从需求、经济、技术三个维度选取了货运周转量、铁水周转量占比、行业生产总值等6个参数,分别构建营运交通碳排放影响因素模型和非营运交通碳排放影响因素模型,分析结果表明:铁水周转量占比与营运交通碳排放量呈负相关,相关系数表明其具有显著的减排效应,持续推进大宗货物公转水将有效减少全省营运交通的碳排放量。
Research on the Impact Factors of Transport Carbon Emission in Zhejiang Province Based on STIRPAT Model
In order to master the change trend and main influencing factors of total carbon emissions from transportation in Zhejiang Province,this paper first calculates the change trend of carbon emissions from transportation (excluding aviation) in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2020 based on the IPCC carbon emission measurement algorithm. From the three dimensions of demand,economy,and technology,six parameters are selected,including freight turnover,proportion of molten iron turnover,and industry GDP. The influencing factor models for carbon emissions from operating transportation and non operating transportation are constructed respectively. The analysis results show that the proportion of turnover of molten iron is negatively correlated with carbon emissions from operating transportation,and the correlation coefficient indicates that it has significant emission reduction effects. Continued promotion of mass transit water will effectively reduce the carbon emissions from operating transportation throughout the province.

transport carbon emissionSTIRPAT modelPLSinfluencing factors

何磊、李诗芸、袁卓琳

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浙江省交通运输科学研究院,浙江杭州 310023

交通碳排放 STIRPAT模型 最小二乘法 影响因素

2024

交通节能与环保
人民交通出版社股份有限公司,交通运输部公路科学研究院

交通节能与环保

影响因子:0.286
ISSN:1673-6478
年,卷(期):2024.20(5)